Prior record: 0-2-0 across 2 since 2021. Most recent 2021, 1-1 in Saudi Pro League. The present numbers are 1840 against 1383, and the model turns that into 87.8% / 11.2% / 1.0%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC sits 76.6 points above the next most likely result. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Qadisiyah FC leads 1.81-0.71 forward and 0.75-1.65 back. The model gives 88.8% to someone winning. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 87.8%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +340 and -117. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 457 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 95.3% to 4.7%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 4-0. Between best and worst outcome there is 86.8 points of daylight. The four component numbers read 1.81, 0.75, 0.71, 1.65. Played and finished 2-1. The ratings draw on 191 and 162 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 14 scored and 7 conceded, with no defeats. Pakhtakor were their latest opponents, away on 12 October: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 away to Al Kholood on 9 October.
Al-Qadisiyah FC visited Pakhtakor on 12 October (AFC Champions League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Al Kholood hosted Al-Qadisiyah FC (Saudi Pro League) on 9 October. For Al-Qadisiyah FC, the score was 5-0: five goals scored, zero allowed. 2-1 was Al-Qadisiyah FC's result against Al-Wasl FC on 14 September (AFC Champions League), playing at home; Al-Qadisiyah FC won, with two scored to one conceded. The 11 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Qadisiyah FC with Al-Ettifaq. Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 3-3 at home, netting three goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Al-Ahli Jeddah (Saudi Pro League), Al-Qadisiyah FC finished 3-2 on 8 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition.
Abha's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 7 conceded, with no wins. Al Diriyah were their latest opponents, away on 13 September: a 0-0 draw.
Playing away from home against Al Diriyah (Saudi Pro League), Abha finished 0-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 9 September: Abha lost 1-2 against Al-Nassr away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Al-Ettifaq in Saudi Pro League, Abha scored zero and conceded one on 4 September; the at home result was 0-1. Abha's away from home game on 28 August (Saudi Pro League) ended 2-3 against Al-Fayha, with two goals for and three against. On 25 August, Al Khaleej Saihat faced Abha in Saudi Pro League: Abha drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Al-Qadisiyah FC on 30 May 2021 and a 2-2 draw at Abha on 24 January 2021.
After the match
Al-Qadisiyah FC edged past Abha 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam on 16 October 2026. Mateo Retegui opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Tijjani Reijnders, to make it 1-0. Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat added to the tally 69 minutes into the game for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Mateo Retegui, to make it 2-0. Alimani Gory pulled one back in the 95th minute for Abha, set up by Safwan Al Johani, to make it 1-2. Julian Weigl (7'), Nabil Fekir (54') and Turki Al-Ammar (86') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Qadisiyah FC 457 points stronger than Abha. 87.8% is Al-Qadisiyah FC's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Al-Qadisiyah FC won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. The card tally for Al-Qadisiyah FC was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Abha: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Abha.