On file: 8 previous meetings dating to 2022, 12-8 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-3 in Saudi Pro League. The present numbers are 1478 against 1477, and the model turns that into 46.7% / 25.7% / 27.7%.
Its point estimate is 1-1. The higher rating expects 59.4% of the points, the lower 40.6%. Al Khaleej Saihat leads the distribution by 19.0 points over Al-Fayha. The four component numbers read 0.78, 1.24, 0.78, 1.14. Outcomes span 21.0 points. One half each — Al Khaleej Saihat in front on 0.78, Al-Fayha behind on 1.14. Result on the day: 2-0. Versus the 1500 seed: -22 and -23. Distance between the ratings: 1 points, narrow on this scale. A decisive result carries 74.4% against 25.7% for the draw. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The ratings draw on 167 and 265 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Top of the distribution: Al Khaleej Saihat, 46.7%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.5%. The home side is rated higher. xG: 1.32 to 1.30. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Khaleej Saihat: three draws and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, ten conceded, without a win. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Al-Ettifaq on 10 October.
Playing away from home against Al-Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League), Al Khaleej Saihat finished 1-1 on 10 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1 against Al-Nassr at home in Saudi Pro League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Al Riyadh in Saudi Pro League, Al Khaleej Saihat scored zero and conceded zero on 7 September; the at home result was 0-0. Al Khaleej Saihat's away from home game on 3 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-3 against NEOM, with zero goals for and three against. On 28 August, Al-Hilal Saudi FC faced Al Khaleej Saihat in Saudi Pro League: Al Khaleej Saihat lost 1-5 at home, having scored one and conceded five.
Al-Fayha's previous five results comprised one win, three draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 7 conceded. Al Riyadh were their latest opponents, at home on 11 October: a 1-1 draw.
Al-Fayha hosted Al Riyadh on 11 October (Saudi Pro League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Al Shabab hosted Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League) on 12 September. For Al-Fayha, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was Al-Fayha's result against Al-Ittihad FC on 8 September (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al-Fayha lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 3 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Fayha with Al Kholood. Al-Fayha drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Abha (Saudi Pro League), Al-Fayha finished 3-2 on 28 August. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-1 home win for Al-Fayha on 28 January and a 3-0 home win for Al Khaleej Saihat on 13 September 2025.
After the match
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam on 15 October 2026. Joshua King opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for Al Khaleej Saihat to make it 1-0. Mateo Benegas added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Al Khaleej Saihat, set up by Mansour Hamzi, to make it 2-0. Nawaf Al-Harthi (50') and Jason Remeseiro (84') were booked. Al Khaleej Saihat are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. Al Khaleej Saihat: five substitutions. Al-Fayha picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Al-Fayha was five. Al Khaleej Saihat conceded no goals.