Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.89 to 0.68 says Al Kholood, 1.01 to 1.41 says Al-Faisaly FC. On rating it is 1502 against 1503, which the model resolves to 46.3% / 25.7% / 28.0%.
The model gives 74.3% to someone winning. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Final score: 3-2. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +2 and +3. The Elo curve splits the expected points 59.1% to 40.9% here. In absolute terms: Al-Faisaly FC 0.68/1.01, Al Kholood 0.89/1.41 on attack and defence. Spread across the three results is 20.6 points. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.4% leads, but only just. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 1 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 187 and 77 matches. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Higher rating: the away side. The underlying goal expectation is 1.42 for Al-Faisaly FC, 1.21 for Al Kholood. Al-Faisaly FC carries the largest share, 46.3%. Al-Faisaly FC holds a 18.3-point edge on the next outcome.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Faisaly FC's previous five results comprised three draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 7 conceded, with no wins. Al-Ittihad FC were their latest opponents, at home on 11 September: a 3-1 defeat.
Playing at home against Al-Ittihad FC (Saudi Pro League), Al-Faisaly FC finished 1-3 on 11 September. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 8 September: Al-Faisaly FC drew 0-0 against Al-Ettifaq away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Al-Hazm in Saudi Pro League, Al-Faisaly FC scored zero and conceded zero on 5 September; the at home result was 0-0. Al-Faisaly FC's away from home game on 30 August (Saudi Pro League) ended 1-3 against Al-Qadisiyah FC, with one goal for and three against. On 26 August, Al-Fateh faced Al-Faisaly FC in Saudi Pro League: Al-Faisaly FC drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one.
Al Kholood came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding 11. A 5-0 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC (9 October) was their most recent result.
Al-Qadisiyah FC travelled to face Al Kholood (Saudi Pro League) on 9 October. For Al Kholood, the score was 0-5: zero goals scored, five allowed. 0-2 was Al Kholood's result against Al Riyadh on 13 September (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al Kholood lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 9 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al Kholood with Al Shabab. Al Kholood won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League), Al Kholood finished 2-2 on 3 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 29 August: Al Kholood won 3-1 against Al-Ahli Jeddah at home in Saudi Pro League, scoring three goals and allowing one.
After the match
Al-Faisaly FC edged past Al Kholood 3-2 on 15 October 2026. Alexandre Mendy opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Al-Faisaly FC to make it 1-0. Shaquille Pinas levelled it in the 19th minute for Al Kholood to make it 1-1. Julien Domingues put Al Kholood in front in the 45th minute, set up by Ramzi Solan, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Al-Faisaly FC drew level through Alexandre Mendy 49 minutes into the game, set up by Flávio, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Al-Faisaly FC restored the lead through Alexandre Mendy late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Abdullah Al-Mogren, to make it 3-2. Andrei Girotto (17') and Ramzi Solan (84') were booked. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.8 to 2.8. one yellow card went to Al-Faisaly FC. The substitution total for Al-Faisaly FC was five. The card tally for Al Kholood was one yellow card. Al Kholood made three changes. The lead changed hands twice in the scoring sequence. Al-Faisaly FC turned a deficit into victory.