Prior record: 3-3-0 across 6 since 2023. Most recent 2026, 4-2 in Saudi Pro League. History aside, the live ratings of 1501 and 1455 drive a 53.4% / 24.1% / 22.5% distribution.
3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 75.9% against 24.1% for the draw. Distance between the ratings: 46 points, moderate on this scale. Higher rating: the home side. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Top of the distribution: Al-Fayha, 53.4%. Outcomes span 30.9 points. xG: 1.64 to 1.24. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.15 and 0.80/1.26. Neither figure is thin: 256 and 102 matches respectively sit behind them. The gap between first and second outcome is 29.3 points, Al-Fayha ahead of the draw. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Fayha: 0.88 to 0.80 going forward, 1.15 to 1.26 going back. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 65.5% to 34.5%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.4%. Result on the day: 1-1. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +1 and -45.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Fayha's previous five results comprised one win, three draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 6 conceded. Al Shabab were their latest opponents, away on 12 September: a 0-0 draw.
On 12 September, Al Shabab faced Al-Fayha in Saudi Pro League: Al-Fayha drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Saudi Pro League, 8 September brought an away meeting with Al-Ittihad FC; Al-Fayha lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Al-Fayha hosted Al Kholood on 3 September (Saudi Pro League) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Abha travelled to face Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League) on 28 August. For Al-Fayha, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Al-Fayha's result against Al Taawon on 25 August (Saudi Pro League), playing away from home; Al-Fayha drew, with zero scored to zero conceded.
Al Riyadh came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding eight, keeping three clean sheets. A 2-0 win at home to Al Kholood (13 September) was their most recent result.
Al Riyadh's at home game on 13 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 2-0 against Al Kholood, with two goals for and zero against. On 7 September, Al Khaleej Saihat faced Al Riyadh in Saudi Pro League: Al Riyadh drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Saudi Pro League, 4 September brought an away meeting with Al-Ahli Jeddah; Al Riyadh lost 0-5, a return of zero goals scored and five conceded. Al Riyadh hosted NEOM on 28 August (Saudi Pro League) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Al Shabab hosted Al Riyadh (Saudi Pro League) on 25 August. For Al Riyadh, the score was 3-3: three goals scored, three allowed.
Previous meetings in our records: a 4-2 home win for Al-Fayha on 4 May and a 1-1 draw at Al Riyadh on 10 January.
After the match
Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 on 11 October 2026. Lázaro Vinicius Marques opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Al-Fayha, set up by Jason Remeseiro, to make it 1-0. Mahmoud Trezeguet levelled it in the 92nd minute for Al Riyadh, set up by Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani, to make it 1-1. Bernard Mensah (32'), Ali Al-Hussain (46'), Kader Keita (77'), Hussain Al Shurafa (81') and Fashion Sakala (95') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al-Fayha are 46 points stronger than Al Riyadh. Al-Fayha picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Al-Fayha was four. Al Riyadh: three yellow cards. Al Riyadh made five changes.