Prior record: 6-2-10 across 18 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 1-3 in Saudi Pro League. Currently 1506 against 1905 — a 4.6% / 16.3% / 79.1% split.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. In absolute terms: Al-Fateh 0.88/1.07, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68/0.58 on attack and defence. Expected goals come out at 0.77 to 2.44. The ratings draw on 311 and 345 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. First to second is a 62.8-point step, Al-Ahli Jeddah over the draw. Played and finished 0-4. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Ahli Jeddah leads 1.68-0.88 forward and 0.58-1.07 back. The model gives 83.7% to someone winning. Al-Ahli Jeddah's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 87.2%. The distribution runs from 79.1% down to 4.6%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-2 on 12.1%. The two ratings differ by 399 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Top of the distribution: Al-Ahli Jeddah, 79.1%. Rounded, that is 0-2. The higher rating belongs to the away side. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +6 and +405.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Fateh arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording three draws and two defeats, scoring four goals and conceding seven. On 13 September, Al-Fateh recorded a 4-2 defeat visiting NEOM.
13 September: Al-Fateh lost 2-4 against NEOM away from home in Saudi Pro League, scoring two goals and allowing four. Against Al Diriyah in Saudi Pro League, Al-Fateh scored one and conceded two on 9 September; the at home result was 1-2. Al-Fateh's away from home game on 5 September (Saudi Pro League) ended 0-0 against Al Taawon, with zero goals for and zero against. On 29 August, Al-Ittihad FC faced Al-Fateh in Saudi Pro League: Al-Fateh drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Saudi Pro League, 26 August brought an away meeting with Al-Faisaly FC; Al-Fateh drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
Al-Ahli Jeddah: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; 11 goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Pakhtakor on 14 September; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Al Riyadh on 4 September.
1-1 was Al-Ahli Jeddah's result against Pakhtakor on 14 September (AFC Champions League), playing at home; Al-Ahli Jeddah drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 11 September fixture (Saudi Pro League) paired Al-Ahli Jeddah with Al-Hazm. Al-Ahli Jeddah won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Al-Qadisiyah FC (Saudi Pro League), Al-Ahli Jeddah finished 2-3 on 8 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 4 September: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 against Al Riyadh at home in Saudi Pro League, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Saudi Pro League, Al-Ahli Jeddah scored zero and conceded three on 1 September; the away from home result was 0-3.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 3-1 home win for Al-Ahli Jeddah on 6 May and a 2-1 home win for Al-Fateh on 26 December 2025.
After the match
Al-Ahli Jeddah overwhelmed Al-Fateh 4-0 at Maydan Tamweel Al Oula, Al-Hasa on 9 October 2026. Francisco Trincão opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Al-Ahli Jeddah to make it 1-0. Francisco Trincão added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for Al-Ahli Jeddah to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Al-Ahli Jeddah extended the lead through Ivan Toney 60 minutes into the game, set up by Eduard Spertsyan, to make it 3-0. Ziyad Al-Johani scored the 4th goal for Al-Ahli Jeddah late on, in the 89th minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Kennedy Boateng (55'), Marwane Saadane (63'), Valentin Atangana Edoa (76'), Faisal Abdulwahed (76') and Mourad Batna (92') were booked. Al-Ahli Jeddah won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 79.1%. Expected goals put the gap at 0.45 to 1.91. four yellow cards went to Al-Fateh. Al-Fateh: five substitutions. one yellow card went to Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Ahli Jeddah: five substitutions. Al-Ahli Jeddah kept their opponents scoreless.