The head-to-head counts 28 recorded meetings since 2011: 14 to Al-Gharafa, 8 to Qatar SC, 6 drawn, 45-40 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-2 in Qatar Stars League. The live ratings are 1442 and 1431, giving 48.1% / 25.3% / 26.5%.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 389 and 328 matches. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 8.2%. On expected goals the model has it 1.95 against 1.81. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 60.8% to 39.2%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.96/1.36 and 0.98/1.37. Ratings sit 11 apart. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -58 and -69. The component ratings barely separate them — 0.96 and 0.98 for scoring, 1.36 and 1.37 for conceding — so the model is not leaning on a stylistic mismatch here. Final score: 2-0. Al-Gharafa holds a 21.6-point edge on the next outcome. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. Higher rating: the home side. As a single number the model says 1-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 22.8 points of daylight. Top of the distribution: Al-Gharafa, 48.1%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Al-Gharafa arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring six goals and conceding nine. On 26 October, Al-Gharafa recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Al-Ahli Jeddah hosted Al-Gharafa (AFC Champions League) on 26 October. For Al-Gharafa, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Al-Gharafa's result against Al Ahli Doha on 22 October (Qatar Stars League), playing at home; Al-Gharafa drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 18 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al-Gharafa with Al-Rayyan SC. Al-Gharafa drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Esteghlal FC (AFC Champions League), Al-Gharafa finished 1-2 on 12 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 8 October: Al-Gharafa lost 2-3 against Al Wakrah away from home in Qatar Stars League, scoring two goals and allowing three.
Qatar SC came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding eight, failing to score in three of those games. On 23 October, Qatar SC recorded a 3-2 win visiting Al Shamal.
Al Shamal hosted Qatar SC (Qatar Stars League) on 23 October. For Qatar SC, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Qatar SC's result against Al-Sailiya on 17 October (Qatar Stars League), playing away from home; Qatar SC drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 9 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Qatar SC with Al-Rayyan SC. Qatar SC lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al-Arabi SC (Qatar Stars League), Qatar SC finished 0-0 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 3 September: Qatar SC lost 0-1 against Al Ahli Doha away from home in Qatar Stars League, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Qatar SC on 12 March and a 2-1 home win for Al-Gharafa on 7 November 2025.
After the match
Al-Gharafa beat Qatar SC 2-0 at Al Gharafa Stadium , Doha on 30 October 2026. Yacine Brahimi opened the scoring 74 minutes into the game for Al-Gharafa, set up by Dame Traore, to make it 1-0. Yacine Brahimi added to the tally late on, in the 88th minute for Al-Gharafa, set up by Amro Surag, to make it 2-0. Ismaël Bennacer (11'), Fabricio Díaz (30'), Eisa Palangi (48') and Seydou Sano (67') were booked. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.43 to 1.53. The card tally for Al-Gharafa was three yellow cards. Al-Gharafa made four changes. Qatar SC picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Qatar SC was three. Al-Gharafa finished with a clean sheet.