The ratings are far apart — 1495 against 1309, 186 points — and the model turns that into 21.4% / 23.8% / 54.8%.
Top of the distribution: Lusail City, 54.8%. Lusail City holds both halves of the profile — 0.96 against 0.88 for scoring, 0.94 against 1.84 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Lusail City holds a 31.0-point edge on the next outcome. Outcomes span 33.4 points. Expected shares 33.3% against 66.7% on Elo. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 9.4%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 186 points. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -191 and -5. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.84 and 0.96/0.94. Expected goals 1.23-2.39. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Scorelines above 8%: 1. The model gives 76.2% to someone winning. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. The ratings draw on 290 and 8 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Played and finished 1-2.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and 21 against accompanied Al-Sailiya's one draw and four defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 6-1 defeat at home to Al-Rayyan SC (23 October) was their most recent result.
The 23 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al-Sailiya with Al-Rayyan SC. Al-Sailiya lost 1-6 at home, netting one goal while conceding six. Playing at home against Qatar SC (Qatar Stars League), Al-Sailiya finished 2-2 on 17 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 10 October: Al-Sailiya lost 0-5 against Al Ahli Doha away from home in Qatar Stars League, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Al Sadd in Qatar Stars League, Al-Sailiya scored three and conceded six on 10 September; the at home result was 3-6. Al-Sailiya's at home game on 3 September (Qatar Stars League) ended 0-2 against Al-Arabi SC, with zero goals for and two against.
five goals for and four against accompanied Lusail City's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 3-1 defeat away to Al-Duhail SC (24 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Al Wakrah on 4 September.
The 24 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Lusail City with Al-Duhail SC. Lusail City lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Al Shamal (Qatar Stars League), Lusail City finished 0-0 on 17 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 10 October: Lusail City lost 0-1 against Al Shahaniya away from home in Qatar Stars League, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Al-Gharafa in Qatar Stars League, Lusail City scored zero and conceded zero on 11 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Lusail City's at home game on 4 September (Qatar Stars League) ended 4-0 against Al Wakrah, with four goals for and zero against.
After the match
Lusail City edged past Al-Sailiya 2-1 at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha on 31 October 2026. Andri Sudarmanto opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Al-Sailiya to make it 1-0. Khaled Mohammed levelled it in the 38th minute for Lusail City to make it 1-1. Rodrigo Machado put Lusail City in front in the 94th minute, set up by Hamidreza Firouzi, to make it 2-1. 7 players were booked, among them Abdelaziz Mitwali (1'), Emanuel Mesquita (22'), Raoul Danzabe Sanda (34'), Joselu (86'), Hamidreza Firouzi (92') and Youssef Mohamed Sayed (93'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Lusail City 186 points stronger than Al-Sailiya. four yellow cards went to Al-Sailiya. Al-Sailiya: five substitutions. Lusail City: three yellow cards. Lusail City made four changes. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Lusail City secured the win.