On record: 13 meetings from 2014, 42-16 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 6-4 in Emir Cup. The present numbers are 1674 against 1529, and the model turns that into 66.8% / 20.6% / 12.6%.
No scoreline clear 8% individually. The model gives 79.4% to someone winning. The gap between first and second outcome is 46.2 points, Al Sadd ahead of the draw. 145 points of rating separation. The match finished 4-1. The higher-rated side expects 77.0% of the points; the other side 23.0%. With 429 and 147 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. xG: 3.52 to 1.92. The four component numbers read 1.95, 1.27, 1.12, 1.22. No scoreline stands out; 3-1 only leads on 6.1%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +174 and +29. The split is one apiece: Al Sadd leads the attacking rate on 1.95, Al Shamal the defensive on 1.22. Most likely single result is Al Sadd on 66.8%. The single-scoreline output is 3-1.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and nine against accompanied Al Sadd's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. A 1-1 draw away to Al-Qadisiyah FC (26 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Al Shahaniya on 22 October.
26 October: Al Sadd drew 1-1 against Al-Qadisiyah FC away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Al Shahaniya in Qatar Stars League, Al Sadd scored four and conceded zero on 22 October; the away from home result was 4-0. Al Sadd's at home game on 18 October (Qatar Stars League) ended 2-3 against Al-Duhail SC, with two goals for and three against. On 13 October, Al-Hilal Saudi FC faced Al Sadd in AFC Champions League: Al Sadd lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. Qatar Stars League, 9 October brought a home meeting with Al-Arabi SC; Al Sadd lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded.
Al Shamal came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding eight, failing to score in three of those games. On 27 October, Al Shamal recorded a 3-1 win hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al Shamal's at home game on 27 October (AFC Champions League) ended 3-1 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC, with three goals for and one against. On 23 October, Qatar SC faced Al Shamal in Qatar Stars League: Al Shamal lost 2-3 at home, having scored two and conceded three. Qatar Stars League, 17 October brought an away meeting with Lusail City; Al Shamal drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Al Shamal visited Tractor Sazi on 12 October (AFC Champions League) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Al-Duhail SC travelled to face Al Shamal (Qatar Stars League) on 8 October. For Al Shamal, the score was 0-4: zero goals scored, four allowed.
Previous meetings in our records: a 6-4 away win for Al Sadd on 1 May and a 3-2 home win for Al Sadd on 27 April.
After the match
Al Sadd comfortably beat Al Shamal 4-1 at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha on 30 October 2026. Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Al Sadd, set up by Akram Afif, to make it 1-0. Riyad Mahrez levelled it from the penalty spot 52 minutes into the game for Al Shamal to make it 1-1. Al Sadd regained the lead through Mohamed Camara 62 minutes into the game, set up by Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel, to make it 2-1. Akram Afif added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Al Sadd, set up by Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel, to make it 3-1. With the 5th goal, Al Sadd extended the lead through Roberto Firmino 80 minutes into the game, set up by Akram Afif, to make it 4-1. Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane (45') was sent off. Mowafak Awad (35'), Baghdad Bounedjah (45') and Mostafa Mashaal (93') were booked. Al Sadd's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 66.8% for a win in this pairing. one yellow card went to Al Sadd. The substitution total for Al Sadd was five. two yellow cards and one red card went to Al Shamal. The substitution total for Al Shamal was five.