Across 12 recorded meetings back to 2014 the split is 3-3-6 from Al Shahaniya's side on wins, 16-19 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-1 in Qatar Stars League. Currently 1376 against 1445 — a 35.5% / 27.9% / 36.6% split.
The away side is rated higher. The top two outcomes are within 1.1 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Expected goals sit at 1.85 against 2.66. No scoreline clear 8% individually. 72.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Most likely single result is Al Ahli Doha on 36.6%. Point estimate: 1-2. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 150 and 332 matches. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 69 points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Versus the 1500 seed: -124 and -55. Al Ahli Doha's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 50.6%. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 1.55 against 1.27 and 1.39. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 7.2%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al Ahli Doha scores at the higher rate (1.27 to 0.90) and concedes at the lower (1.39 to 1.55).
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Shahaniya's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 15 conceded. Al Sadd were their latest opponents, at home on 22 October: a 4-0 defeat.
Against Al Sadd in Qatar Stars League, Al Shahaniya scored zero and conceded four on 22 October; the at home result was 0-4. Al Shahaniya's at home game on 16 October (Qatar Stars League) ended 0-6 against Al-Arabi SC, with zero goals for and six against. On 10 October, Lusail City faced Al Shahaniya in Qatar Stars League: Al Shahaniya won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Qatar Stars League, 12 September brought an away meeting with Al-Duhail SC; Al Shahaniya drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Al Shahaniya visited Al Shamal on 4 September (Qatar Stars League) and lost 2-4; their goals totalled two, compared with four conceded.
Al Ahli Doha came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. On 22 October, Al Ahli Doha recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Al-Gharafa; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Al-Sailiya on 10 October.
The 22 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al Ahli Doha with Al-Gharafa. Al Ahli Doha drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Al Wakrah (Qatar Stars League), Al Ahli Doha finished 0-3 on 16 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 10 October: Al Ahli Doha won 5-0 against Al-Sailiya at home in Qatar Stars League, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Al-Rayyan SC in Qatar Stars League, Al Ahli Doha scored zero and conceded three on 11 September; the away from home result was 0-3. Al Ahli Doha's at home game on 3 September (Qatar Stars League) ended 1-0 against Qatar SC, with one goal for and zero against.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Al Shahaniya on 27 February and a 2-1 away win for Al Ahli Doha on 26 September 2025.
After the match
Al Ahli Doha edged past Al Shahaniya 2-1 at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha on 30 October 2026. Ghanem Al-Minhali opened the scoring 57 minutes into the game for Al Ahli Doha, set up by Erik Expósito, to make it 1-0. Abdoulaye Traore levelled it late on, in the 85th minute for Al Shahaniya, set up by Sven van Beek, to make it 1-1. Al Ahli Doha regained the lead through Driss Fettouhi late on, in the 87th minute, set up by Benjamin Bourigeaud, to make it 2-1. Ghanem Al-Minhali (18'), Zvonimir Šarlija (47') and Sven van Beek (63') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Expected goals put the gap at 0.6 to 2.45. The card tally for Al Shahaniya was two yellow cards. Al Shahaniya made five changes. Al Ahli Doha: one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Al Ahli Doha.