On file: 32 previous meetings dating to 2011, 64-55 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-1 in Qatar Stars League. Today those sides rate 1639 and 1632, 7 apart, which resolves to 47.4% / 25.5% / 27.1%.
Distance between the ratings: 7 points, narrow on this scale. The four component numbers read 1.89, 1.43, 1.40, 0.91. The model gives 74.5% to someone winning. Reduced to one result that is 2-2. Most likely single result is Al Sadd on 47.4%. The edge is split: Al Sadd scores at the higher rate (1.89 to 1.40), Al-Duhail SC concedes at the lower (0.91 to 1.43). Al Sadd sits 20.3 points above the next most likely result. The three results cover 21.9 points. Versus the 1500 seed: +139 and +132. The xG line reads 2.55 to 2.70. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 426 and 423 rated matches respectively. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Their expected shares of the points are 60.2% and 39.8%. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 6.2%. The home side is rated higher. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Result on the day: 2-3.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and 12 against accompanied Al Sadd's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 2-0 defeat at home to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (13 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-3 away to Al-Sailiya on 10 September.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC travelled to face Al Sadd (AFC Champions League) on 13 October. For Al Sadd, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 2-3 was Al Sadd's result against Al-Arabi SC on 9 October (Qatar Stars League), playing at home; Al Sadd lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 14 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Al Sadd with Esteghlal FC. Al Sadd lost 0-3 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Al-Sailiya (Qatar Stars League), Al Sadd finished 6-3 on 10 September. Their score comprised six goals, against three from the opposition. 5 September: Al Sadd won 4-1 against Al-Gharafa at home in Qatar Stars League, scoring four goals and allowing one.
Al-Duhail SC's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 3 conceded, with no defeats. Al Shamal were their latest opponents, away on 8 October: a 4-0 win.
Al-Duhail SC visited Al Shamal on 8 October (Qatar Stars League) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Al Shahaniya travelled to face Al-Duhail SC (Qatar Stars League) on 12 September. For Al-Duhail SC, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Al-Duhail SC's result against Al-Rayyan SC on 5 September (Qatar Stars League), playing away from home; Al-Duhail SC drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 29 August fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al-Duhail SC with Al-Arabi SC. Al-Duhail SC drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Al-Sailiya (Qatar Stars League), Al-Duhail SC finished 2-0 on 22 August. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-1 away win for Al Sadd on 26 February and a 0-0 draw at Al Sadd on 25 September 2025.
After the match
Al-Duhail SC edged past Al Sadd 3-2 at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha on 18 October 2026. Jean-Charles Castelletto opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Al-Duhail SC, set up by Bassam Al-Rawi, to make it 1-0. Sultan Al-Brake added to the tally in the 28th minute for Al-Duhail SC, set up by Krzysztof Piątek, to make it 2-0. Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva pulled one back in the 32nd minute for Al Sadd, set up by Roberto Firmino, to make it 1-2. Yusuf Abdurisag levelled it 49 minutes into the game for Al Sadd, set up by Roberto Firmino, to make it 2-2. Al-Duhail SC regained the lead through Tahsin Jamshid in the 94th minute to make it 3-2. Roberto Firmino (46'), Pedro Miguel (54'), Bassam Al-Rawi (73'), Krzysztof Piątek (87') and Boualem Khoukhi (87') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al-Duhail SC only a 27.1% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Al Sadd's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2025/26 AFC Champions League, the 2025/26 Qatar Stars League, the 2026/27 Qatar Stars League and the 2026/27 AFC Champions League. Al-Duhail SC are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Qatar Stars League, the 2025/26 AFC Champions League and the 2026/27 Qatar Stars League. three yellow cards went to Al Sadd. The substitution total for Al Sadd was five. two yellow cards went to Al-Duhail SC. Al-Duhail SC: three substitutions.