On record: 28 meetings from 2011, 60-52 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-2 in Qatar Stars League. Today those sides rate 1429 and 1625, 196 apart, which resolves to 20.3% / 23.4% / 56.3%.
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.04 and 2.81. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.7%. Al-Rayyan SC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 68.0%. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Rayyan SC: 1.44 to 0.90 going forward, 0.78 to 1.45 going back. Al-Rayyan SC leads the distribution by 32.9 points over the draw. The match finished 0-0. The rating gap itself is 196 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Behind them are 386 and 369 rated matches. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. Versus the 1500 seed: -71 and +125. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The three results cover 36.0 points. In absolute terms: Al-Gharafa 0.90/1.45, Al-Rayyan SC 1.44/0.78 on attack and defence. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Rayyan SC at 56.3%. Someone wins 76.6% of the time by this model. Higher rating: the away side.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and 11 against accompanied Al-Gharafa's one draw and four defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 2-1 defeat at home to Esteghlal FC (12 October) was their most recent result.
The 12 October fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Al-Gharafa with Esteghlal FC. Al-Gharafa lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Al Wakrah (Qatar Stars League), Al-Gharafa finished 2-3 on 8 October. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 15 September: Al-Gharafa lost 1-2 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Lusail City in Qatar Stars League, Al-Gharafa scored zero and conceded zero on 11 September; the at home result was 0-0. Al-Gharafa's away from home game on 5 September (Qatar Stars League) ended 1-4 against Al Sadd, with one goal for and four against.
Al-Rayyan SC were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring ten goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. On 9 October, Al-Rayyan SC recorded a 3-0 win visiting Qatar SC.
The 9 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al-Rayyan SC with Qatar SC. Al-Rayyan SC won 3-0 away from home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Al Ahli Doha (Qatar Stars League), Al-Rayyan SC finished 3-0 on 11 September. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 5 September: Al-Rayyan SC drew 1-1 against Al-Duhail SC at home in Qatar Stars League, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Al Wakrah in Qatar Stars League, Al-Rayyan SC scored two and conceded one on 27 August; the away from home result was 2-1. Al-Rayyan SC's at home game on 20 August (Qatar Stars League) ended 1-0 against Lusail City, with one goal for and zero against.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-2 home win for Al-Gharafa on 26 February and a 3-2 away win for Al-Gharafa on 25 September 2025.
After the match
Al-Gharafa and Al-Rayyan SC could not be separated in a goalless draw at Al Gharafa Stadium , Doha on 18 October 2026. Pedro Rui da Mota Vieira Martins (96') was sent off. 9 players were booked, among them Ayoub Al-Oui (21'), David García (44'), Julien De Sart (44'), Ferjani Sassi (50'), Diogo Amaro (65') and Ahmed Al Minhali (70'). The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Rayyan SC 196 points stronger than Al-Gharafa. Al-Rayyan SC are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form. Al-Gharafa: five yellow cards and one red card. three changes were recorded for Al-Gharafa. Al-Rayyan SC: four yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Al-Rayyan SC. A clean sheet for Al-Gharafa. A clean sheet for Al-Rayyan SC.