On record: 24 meetings from 2011, 47-43 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-3 in Qatar Stars League. The live ratings are 1428 and 1489, giving 36.7% / 27.9% / 35.5%.
Goal expectation splits 2.25 to 2.39. Behind them are 330 and 309 rated matches. Al Ahli Doha has the better scoring rate (1.24) and Al Wakrah the better defensive one (1.23). Result on the day: 0-3. The away side is rated higher. Al Wakrah's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 49.4%. All three results are bunched inside 8.8 points. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -72 and -11. The model gives 72.2% to someone winning. The top two outcomes are within 1.2 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Rounded, that is 2-2. 36.7% goes to Al Ahli Doha, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 1.24 and 1.43 against 1.24 and 1.23. Distance between the ratings: 61 points, moderate on this scale. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 7.0%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and nine against accompanied Al Ahli Doha's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. A 5-0 win at home to Al-Sailiya (10 October) was their most recent result.
The 10 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al Ahli Doha with Al-Sailiya. Al Ahli Doha won 5-0 at home, netting five goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Al-Rayyan SC (Qatar Stars League), Al Ahli Doha finished 0-3 on 11 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 3 September: Al Ahli Doha won 1-0 against Qatar SC at home in Qatar Stars League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Lusail City in Qatar Stars League, Al Ahli Doha scored three and conceded three on 28 August; the at home result was 3-3. Al Ahli Doha's away from home game on 22 August (Qatar Stars League) ended 1-3 against Al Sadd, with one goal for and three against.
seven goals for and 11 against accompanied Al Wakrah's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 3-2 win at home to Al-Gharafa (8 October) was their most recent result.
The 8 October fixture (Qatar Stars League) paired Al Wakrah with Al-Gharafa. Al Wakrah won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Al Shamal (Qatar Stars League), Al Wakrah finished 1-1 on 10 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 4 September: Al Wakrah lost 0-4 against Lusail City away from home in Qatar Stars League, scoring zero goals and allowing four. Against Al-Rayyan SC in Qatar Stars League, Al Wakrah scored one and conceded two on 27 August; the at home result was 1-2. Al Wakrah's at home game on 20 August (Qatar Stars League) ended 2-2 against Qatar SC, with two goals for and two against.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-2 home win for Al Wakrah on 6 February and a 5-3 home win for Al Ahli Doha on 13 September 2025.
After the match
Al Wakrah comfortably beat Al Ahli Doha 3-0 at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha on 16 October 2026. Amine Zouhzouh opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 18th minute for Al Wakrah to make it 1-0. Amine Zouhzouh added to the tally 62 minutes into the game for Al Wakrah to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Al Wakrah extended the lead through Amine Zouhzouh late on, in the 90th minute, set up by Murad Naji, to make it 3-0. Talal Al Shila (57') and Ghanem Al-Minhali (83') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al Wakrah are 61 points stronger than Al Ahli Doha. Expected goals put the gap at 0.64 to 2. The card tally for Al Ahli Doha was two yellow cards. Al Ahli Doha made four changes. Al Wakrah made four changes. A clean sheet for Al Wakrah.