Prior record: 3-4-3 across 10 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in Süper Lig. Currently 1485 against 1514 — a 41.8% / 26.7% / 31.4% split.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. The edge is split: Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores at the higher rate (0.87 to 0.81), Alanyaspor concedes at the lower (1.12 to 1.17). Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.1% — not a strong call. Expected goals sit at 1.45 against 1.29. 41.8% goes to Gençlerbirliği S.K., the model's lean. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Played and finished 5-0. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Elo expected shares: 55.2% and 44.8%. First to second is a 10.4-point step, Gençlerbirliği S.K. over Alanyaspor. Attack/defence pairs: 0.87/1.17 and 0.81/1.12. Spread across the three results is 15.1 points. The model gives 73.2% to someone winning. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 356 and 368 matches. Distance between the ratings: 29 points, moderate on this scale. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -15 and +14.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: one draw and four defeats over five games; three goals scored, 11 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Konyaspor were their latest opponents, away on 25 October: a 2-0 defeat.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. visited Konyaspor on 25 October (Süper Lig) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Galatasaray travelled to face Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig) on 17 October. For Gençlerbirliği S.K., the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s result against Amed on 10 October (Süper Lig), playing at home; Gençlerbirliği S.K. drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 19 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Gençlerbirliği S.K. with Başakşehir. Gençlerbirliği S.K. lost 0-4 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding four. Playing at home against Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig), Gençlerbirliği S.K. finished 1-2 on 13 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition.
five goals for and eight against accompanied Alanyaspor's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. On 23 October, Alanyaspor recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Kocaelispor.
Kocaelispor travelled to face Alanyaspor (Süper Lig) on 23 October. For Alanyaspor, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-3 was Alanyaspor's result against Fenerbahçe on 17 October (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Alanyaspor lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Süper Lig) paired Alanyaspor with Erzurumspor FK. Alanyaspor drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Çorum FK (Süper Lig), Alanyaspor finished 2-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Alanyaspor drew 2-2 against Göztepe at home in Süper Lig, scoring two goals and allowing two.
Previous meetings in our records: a 0-0 draw at Alanyaspor on 9 March and a 2-2 draw at Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 4 October 2025.
After the match
Gençlerbirliği S.K. overwhelmed Alanyaspor 5-0 on 2 November 2026. O. Ulgun opened the scoring inside the first minute for Gençlerbirliği S.K., set up by F. Tongya, to make it 1-0. F. Tongya added to the tally 59 minutes into the game for Gençlerbirliği S.K., set up by A. Traore, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Gençlerbirliği S.K. extended the lead through T. Gouveia 66 minutes into the game, set up by A. Traore, to make it 3-0. P. Mendes scored the 4th goal for Gençlerbirliği S.K. 68 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by F. Tongya, to make it 4-0. Gençlerbirliği S.K. extended the lead 78 minutes into the game; the match's 5th goal came through T. Gouveia, set up by I. Egribayat, to make it 5-0. P. Mendes (39'), B. Ozyurt (47'), Maestro (59') and O. Ben Ali (88') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Alanyaspor slightly the stronger side, by 29 rating points over Gençlerbirliği S.K., even though it was Gençlerbirliği S.K. who won this one. On current ratings the model puts Gençlerbirliği S.K. at around 1.45 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Expected goals put the gap at 1.76 to 0.5. Gençlerbirliği S.K.: one yellow card. Gençlerbirliği S.K. made five changes. Alanyaspor: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Alanyaspor. Gençlerbirliği S.K. finished with a clean sheet.