The head-to-head counts 14 recorded meetings since 2017: 6 to Fenerbahçe, 2 to Göztepe, 6 drawn, 22-16 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-1 in Süper Lig. The live ratings are 1794 and 1629, giving 69.0% / 19.9% / 11.0%.
Scorelines above 8%: 1. The home side is rated higher. The model's preferred outcome is Fenerbahçe at 69.0%. A 165-point difference on the rating scale. Fenerbahçe holds a 49.1-point edge on the next outcome. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Final score: 1-2. Fenerbahçe's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 79.0%. With 564 and 260 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Expected goals come out at 2.68 to 1.39. Most and least likely outcomes are 58.0 points apart. Win-or-lose totals 80.0%; the draw takes the rest. Its rounded call is 2-1. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 8.5%. Versus the 1500 seed: +294 and +129. Fenerbahçe is ahead on each half — 1.75 to 1.24 in attack, 0.83 to 1.03 in defence. Attack/defence pairs: 1.75/0.83 and 1.24/1.03.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Fenerbahçe's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 15 scored and 2 conceded, keeping four clean sheets. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Galatasaray on 26 October; their biggest win in that spell was 8-0 at home to Eyüpspor on 20 September.
Playing away from home against Galatasaray (Süper Lig), Fenerbahçe finished 1-2 on 26 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 17 October: Fenerbahçe won 3-0 against Alanyaspor at home in Süper Lig, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Rizespor in Süper Lig, Fenerbahçe scored three and conceded zero on 10 October; the away from home result was 3-0. Fenerbahçe's at home game on 20 September (Süper Lig) ended 8-0 against Eyüpspor, with eight goals for and zero against. On 14 September, Gaziantep FK faced Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig: Fenerbahçe drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero.
Göztepe: three wins and two draws over five games; 12 goals scored, five conceded, unbeaten. Çorum FK were their latest opponents, at home on 25 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Eyüpspor on 12 October.
On 25 October, Çorum FK faced Göztepe in Süper Lig: Göztepe won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Süper Lig, 18 October brought an away meeting with Kocaelispor; Göztepe won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Göztepe visited Eyüpspor on 12 October (Süper Lig) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Rizespor travelled to face Göztepe (Süper Lig) on 20 September. For Göztepe, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Göztepe's result against Alanyaspor on 12 September (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Göztepe drew, with two scored to two conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Fenerbahçe on 25 January and a 0-0 draw at Göztepe on 16 August 2025.
After the match
Göztepe edged past Fenerbahçe 2-1 on 31 October 2026. M. Guendouzi opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Fenerbahçe, set up by R. Lukaku, to make it 1-0. S. Armstrong levelled it 76 minutes into the game for Göztepe to make it 1-1. Andre Henrique put Göztepe in front 78 minutes into the game, set up by F. Anjorin, to make it 2-1. N. Kante (3'), A. Antunes (39'), N. Semedo (42'), R. Akonnor (47') and T. Altikardes (89') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Göztepe only an 11% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Göztepe's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Süper Lig. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.49 to 1.2. Fenerbahçe: two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Fenerbahçe. Göztepe: three yellow cards. Göztepe made four changes. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Göztepe secured the win.