The rating gap is 193 points here, and the split follows at 72.0% / 19.0% / 9.0%.
A decisive result carries 81.0% against 19.0% for the draw. 193 points of rating separation. The ratings draw on 10 and 80 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-0 on 10.4%. Spread across the three results is 63.0 points. The single-scoreline output is 3-0. Raw profiles are 1.42 and 0.91 against 0.61 and 1.57. Elo expected shares: 81.5% and 18.5%. Neither component contradicts the other: Amed leads 1.42-0.61 forward and 0.91-1.57 back. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +100 and -93. The gap between first and second outcome is 53.0 points, Amed ahead of the draw. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Expected goals come out at 3.31 to 0.75. Amed carries the largest share, 72.0%. The tie closed out 5-1.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Amed's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 5 conceded, with no defeats. Samsunspor were their latest opponents, away on 24 October: a 2-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Başakşehir on 13 September.
Amed visited Samsunspor on 24 October (Süper Lig) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Konyaspor travelled to face Amed (Süper Lig) on 17 October. For Amed, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-2 was Amed's result against Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 10 October (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Amed drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Amed with Beşiktaş. Amed won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Başakşehir (Süper Lig), Amed finished 5-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised five goals, against zero from the opposition.
Eyüpspor's previous five results comprised five defeats. Their goal totals were 0 scored and 17 conceded, failing to score in five of those games, with no wins. Kasımpaşa were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Eyüpspor hosted Kasımpaşa on 24 October (Süper Lig) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Erzurumspor FK hosted Eyüpspor (Süper Lig) on 17 October. For Eyüpspor, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 0-4 was Eyüpspor's result against Göztepe on 12 October (Süper Lig), playing at home; Eyüpspor lost, with zero scored to four conceded. The 20 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Eyüpspor with Fenerbahçe. Eyüpspor lost 0-8 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding eight. Playing at home against Rizespor (Süper Lig), Eyüpspor finished 0-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition.
After the match
Amed overwhelmed Eyüpspor 5-1 on 1 November 2026. E. Krasniqi opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Amed, set up by R. Lutin, to make it 1-0. G. Orban added to the tally in the 35th minute for Amed, set up by R. Lutin, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Amed extended the lead through S. Ballet in the 42nd minute, set up by G. Orban, to make it 3-0. S. Ballet scored the 4th goal for Amed 52 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by R. Raveloson, to make it 4-0. A. Abdullahi got one back 73 minutes into the game for Eyüpspor, set up by A. Sabiri, to make it 1-4. Amed extended the lead late on, in the 83rd minute; the match's 6th goal came through S. Ballet from the penalty spot to make it 5-1. S. Ballet (92') was sent off. J. El Yamiq (45') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Amed 193 points stronger than Eyüpspor. Amed: 72% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Amed are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Süper Lig. Eyüpspor's current recorded form ends with 7 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Süper Lig. Expected goals put the gap at 4.88 to 0.81. Amed: one red card. five changes were recorded for Amed. one yellow card went to Eyüpspor. Eyüpspor: five substitutions.