On file: 22 previous meetings dating to 2013, 27-44 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-1 in Süper Lig. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1541 and 1742 — 201 points — for a 19.7% / 23.2% / 57.0% split.
The higher-rated side expects 68.6% of the points; the other side 31.4%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +41 and +242. Someone wins 76.7% of the time by this model. A 37.3-point range top to bottom. Top of the distribution: Trabzonspor, 57.0%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 201 points. The four component numbers read 0.98, 1.19, 1.51, 0.82. The away side is rated higher. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.4%. Trabzonspor leads the distribution by 33.8 points over the draw. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-2. Both components point the same way, toward Trabzonspor: 1.51 to 0.98 going forward, 0.82 to 1.19 going back. On expected goals the model has it 1.19 against 2.43.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Rizespor: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, eight conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Çorum FK on 16 October.
1-2 was Rizespor's result against Çorum FK on 16 October (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Rizespor lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 10 October fixture (Süper Lig) paired Rizespor with Fenerbahçe. Rizespor lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing away from home against Göztepe (Süper Lig), Rizespor finished 2-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 12 September: Rizespor won 2-0 against Eyüpspor away from home in Süper Lig, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Rizespor scored zero and conceded one on 7 September; the at home result was 0-1.
Trabzonspor: four wins and one defeat over five games; 14 goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets. Beşiktaş were their latest opponents, at home on 19 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 6 September.
Playing at home against Beşiktaş (Süper Lig), Trabzonspor finished 2-0 on 19 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 10 October: Trabzonspor won 3-0 against Samsunspor away from home in Süper Lig, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Trabzonspor scored four and conceded zero on 19 September; the at home result was 4-0. Trabzonspor's away from home game on 12 September (Süper Lig) ended 0-1 against Konyaspor, with zero goals for and one against. On 6 September, Gençlerbirliği S.K. faced Trabzonspor in Süper Lig: Trabzonspor won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 home win for Trabzonspor on 14 March and a 2-1 away win for Trabzonspor on 18 October 2025.
After the match
Trabzonspor edged past Rizespor 4-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize on 26 October 2026. G. Borrelli opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for Rizespor to make it 1-0. G. Borrelli added to the tally in the 32nd minute for Rizespor, set up by A. Mebude, to make it 2-0. M. Kabasakal pulled one back 49 minutes into the game for Trabzonspor, set up by E. Muci, to make it 1-2. A. Simsir levelled it 51 minutes into the game for Trabzonspor, set up by E. Muci, to make it 2-2. Franculino put Trabzonspor in front 57 minutes into the game to make it 3-2. With the 6th goal, Rizespor drew level through Q. Laci 68 minutes into the game, set up by A. Mebude, to make it 3-3. With the 7th goal, Trabzonspor restored the lead through Franculino late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by E. Muci, to make it 4-3. Z. Ariss (14'), Fabinho (38'), M. Kabasakal (55') and G. Borrelli (60') were booked. Trabzonspor won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 57%. Trabzonspor's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in the 2026/27 Süper Lig. two yellow cards went to Rizespor. Rizespor: five substitutions. two yellow cards went to Trabzonspor. The substitution total for Trabzonspor was five. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. Trabzonspor turned a deficit into victory.