2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2021, aggregate 3-4. The latest was 2021, 2-3 in Süper Lig. Today those sides rate 1452 and 1474, 22 apart, which resolves to 43.0% / 26.5% / 30.5%.
Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.7% leads, but only just. The three results cover 16.5 points. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.40 and 1.46. A decisive result carries 73.5% against 26.5% for the draw. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -48 and -26. Erzurumspor FK's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.8%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 265 and 84 rated matches respectively. The four component numbers read 0.81, 1.28, 0.84, 1.17. The away side is rated higher. Erzurumspor FK holds both halves of the profile — 0.84 against 0.81 for scoring, 1.17 against 1.28 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Final score: 1-3. A 22-point difference on the rating scale. Most likely single result is Gaziantep FK on 43.0%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and nine against accompanied Gaziantep FK's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games. A 2-1 defeat away to Başakşehir (18 October) was their most recent result.
The 18 October fixture (Süper Lig) paired Gaziantep FK with Başakşehir. Gaziantep FK lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Çorum FK (Süper Lig), Gaziantep FK finished 0-3 on 11 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 19 September: Gaziantep FK lost 0-2 against Kocaelispor away from home in Süper Lig, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Gaziantep FK scored zero and conceded zero on 14 September; the at home result was 0-0. Gaziantep FK's away from home game on 7 September (Süper Lig) ended 4-2 against Göztepe, with four goals for and two against.
four goals for and three against accompanied Erzurumspor FK's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings, keeping four clean sheets. A 2-0 win at home to Eyüpspor (17 October) was their most recent result.
Erzurumspor FK's at home game on 17 October (Süper Lig) ended 2-0 against Eyüpspor, with two goals for and zero against. On 10 October, Alanyaspor faced Erzurumspor FK in Süper Lig: Erzurumspor FK drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Süper Lig, 20 September brought a home meeting with Samsunspor; Erzurumspor FK won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Erzurumspor FK visited Beşiktaş on 11 September (Süper Lig) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Konyaspor travelled to face Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig) on 5 September. For Erzurumspor FK, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.
Earlier results between these sides included a 3-2 away win for Erzurumspor FK on 25 April 2021 and a 1-1 draw at Erzurumspor FK on 2 January 2021.
After the match
Erzurumspor FK beat Gaziantep FK 3-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep on 24 October 2026. M. Cardoso opened the scoring 53 minutes into the game for Erzurumspor FK, set up by E. Tozlu, to make it 1-0. A. Gerxhaliu added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Erzurumspor FK, set up by O. Ovacikli, to make it 2-0. K. Calhanoglu pulled one back 71 minutes into the game for Gaziantep FK, set up by S. Dursun, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Erzurumspor FK extended the lead through G. Giorbelidze in the 95th minute to make it 3-1. M. Abena (41') and K. Kozlowski (85') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Gaziantep FK's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Süper Lig. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.05 to 0.62. The card tally for Gaziantep FK was two yellow cards. Gaziantep FK made five changes. Erzurumspor FK: four substitutions.