On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2024, 2-6 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-1 in Süper Lig. Today those sides rate 1417 and 1568, 151 apart, which resolves to 25.4% / 25.0% / 49.6%.
A 151-point spread sits between the two figures. Top of the distribution: Kasımpaşa, 49.6%. Result on the day: 0-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 79 and 503 matches. Scorelines above 8%: 4. There is no trade-off to weigh: Kasımpaşa scores at the higher rate (0.96 to 0.60) and concedes at the lower (0.96 to 1.43). No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 12.3%. The model gives 75.0% to someone winning. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.86 and 1.86. First to second is a 24.2-point step, Kasımpaşa over Eyüpspor. Raw profiles are 0.60 and 1.43 against 0.96 and 0.96. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Higher rating: the away side. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -83 and +68. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 37.9% to 62.1%. Most and least likely outcomes are 24.6 points apart.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
zero goals for and 19 against accompanied Eyüpspor's five defeats across five outings, failing to score in five of those games, a winless run. A 2-0 defeat away to Erzurumspor FK (17 October) was their most recent result.
17 October: Eyüpspor lost 0-2 against Erzurumspor FK away from home in Süper Lig, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Göztepe in Süper Lig, Eyüpspor scored zero and conceded four on 12 October; the at home result was 0-4. Eyüpspor's away from home game on 20 September (Süper Lig) ended 0-8 against Fenerbahçe, with zero goals for and eight against. On 12 September, Rizespor faced Eyüpspor in Süper Lig: Eyüpspor lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. Süper Lig, 6 September brought an away meeting with Çorum FK; Eyüpspor lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded.
Kasımpaşa's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 7 conceded. Samsunspor were their latest opponents, at home on 18 October: a 4-1 win.
4-1 was Kasımpaşa's result against Samsunspor on 18 October (Süper Lig), playing at home; Kasımpaşa won, with four scored to one conceded. The 9 October fixture (Süper Lig) paired Kasımpaşa with Galatasaray. Kasımpaşa lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Konyaspor (Süper Lig), Kasımpaşa finished 0-0 on 18 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 13 September: Kasımpaşa won 2-1 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. away from home in Süper Lig, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Amed in Süper Lig, Kasımpaşa scored two and conceded two on 6 September; the at home result was 2-2.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for Kasımpaşa on 15 March and a 2-0 home win for Eyüpspor on 20 October 2025.
After the match
Kasımpaşa edged past Eyüpspor 1-0 on 24 October 2026. A. Benedyczak opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Kasımpaşa, set up by H. Hajradinovic, to make it 1-0. K. Demirbay (29') and A. Kol (87') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Kasımpaşa 151 points stronger than Eyüpspor. Eyüpspor's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats. Eyüpspor made five changes. Kasımpaşa: two yellow cards. Kasımpaşa made five changes. Kasımpaşa finished with a clean sheet.