The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Kocaelispor, 0 to Göztepe, 2 drawn, 1-1 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-1 in Süper Lig. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1517 and 1593 — 76 points — for a 34.6% / 27.6% / 37.8% split.
What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Both figures rest on decent samples, 42 and 258 matches. The four component numbers read 0.67, 0.82, 1.20, 1.12. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.9% — not a strong call. A 76-point difference on the rating scale. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +17 and +93. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.20 to 0.67 says Göztepe, 0.82 to 1.12 says Kocaelispor. Expected goals sit at 1.10 against 1.33. Göztepe carries the largest share, 37.8%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 48.4% to 51.6%. Point estimate: 1-1. A decisive result carries 72.4% against 27.6% for the draw. The tie closed out 1-2. Higher rating: the away side. Only 3.2 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Kocaelispor came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding four. On 11 October, Kocaelispor recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş hosted Kocaelispor (Süper Lig) on 11 October. For Kocaelispor, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 2-0 was Kocaelispor's result against Gaziantep FK on 19 September (Süper Lig), playing at home; Kocaelispor won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 13 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Kocaelispor with Galatasaray. Kocaelispor lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Samsunspor (Süper Lig), Kocaelispor finished 1-0 on 6 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 29 August: Kocaelispor won 2-1 against Konyaspor away from home in Süper Lig, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Göztepe: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; 12 goals scored, 11 conceded. Eyüpspor were their latest opponents, away on 12 October: a 4-0 win.
On 12 October, Eyüpspor faced Göztepe in Süper Lig: Göztepe won 4-0 away from home, having scored four and conceded zero. Süper Lig, 20 September brought a home meeting with Rizespor; Göztepe drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Göztepe visited Alanyaspor on 12 September (Süper Lig) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Gaziantep FK travelled to face Göztepe (Süper Lig) on 7 September. For Göztepe, the score was 2-4: two goals scored, four allowed. 2-3 was Göztepe's result against Galatasaray on 29 August (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Göztepe lost, with two scored to three conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Kocaelispor on 18 April and a 0-0 draw at Göztepe on 23 November 2025.
After the match
Göztepe edged past Kocaelispor 2-1 on 18 October 2026. Show (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Göztepe to make it 1-0. N. Miroshi added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Göztepe, set up by Juan, to make it 2-0. B. Kutlu pulled one back from the penalty spot late on, in the 82nd minute for Kocaelispor to make it 1-2. M. Susoho (56'), Andre Henrique (76'), N. Miroshi (78') and E. Ortakaya (93') were booked. Göztepe are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. Göztepe won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. Kocaelispor picked up two yellow cards. Kocaelispor: five substitutions. Göztepe: two yellow cards. Göztepe made five changes.