On record: 6 meetings from 2023, 6-9 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in Süper Lig. History aside, the live ratings of 1557 and 1528 drive a 50.8% / 24.7% / 24.5% distribution.
Kasımpaşa sits 26.1 points above the next most likely result. Neither figure is thin: 502 and 150 matches respectively sit behind them. The model gives 75.3% to someone winning. Rounded, that is 1-1. Most likely single result is Kasımpaşa on 50.8%. xG: 1.96 to 1.25. Versus the 1500 seed: +57 and +28. Both components point the same way, toward Kasımpaşa: 0.97 to 0.91 going forward, 1.02 to 1.35 going back. Raw profiles are 0.97 and 1.02 against 0.91 and 1.35. The match finished 4-1. Spread across the three results is 26.3 points. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. A 29-point spread sits between the two figures. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Kasımpaşa's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 63.2%. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.9%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Kasımpaşa: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; six goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 3-1 defeat away to Galatasaray on 9 October.
On 9 October, Galatasaray faced Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig: Kasımpaşa lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Süper Lig, 18 September brought a home meeting with Konyaspor; Kasımpaşa drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Kasımpaşa visited Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 13 September (Süper Lig) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Amed travelled to face Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig) on 6 September. For Kasımpaşa, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Kasımpaşa's result against Başakşehir on 30 August (Süper Lig), playing away from home; Kasımpaşa drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Samsunspor arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording five defeats, scoring one goal and conceding 12, failing to score in four of those games. On 10 October, Samsunspor recorded a 3-0 defeat hosting Trabzonspor.
10 October: Samsunspor lost 0-3 against Trabzonspor at home in Süper Lig, scoring zero goals and allowing three. Against Erzurumspor FK in Süper Lig, Samsunspor scored zero and conceded one on 20 September; the away from home result was 0-1. Samsunspor's at home game on 12 September (Süper Lig) ended 1-5 against Çorum FK, with one goal for and five against. On 6 September, Kocaelispor faced Samsunspor in Süper Lig: Samsunspor lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. Süper Lig, 30 August brought a home meeting with Fenerbahçe; Samsunspor lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Samsunspor on 30 January and a 0-0 draw at Samsunspor on 17 September 2025.
After the match
Kasımpaşa comfortably beat Samsunspor 4-1 on 18 October 2026. C. Winck opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Kasımpaşa, set up by A. Kol, to make it 1-0. A. Arous added to the tally in the 31st minute for Kasımpaşa, set up by A. Benedyczak, to make it 2-0. T. Coulibaly pulled one back in the 45th minute for Samsunspor to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Kasımpaşa extended the lead through A. Arous 64 minutes into the game, set up by J. Rak-Sakyi, to make it 3-1. A. Benedyczak scored the 5th goal for Kasımpaşa 78 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by K. Demirbay, to make it 4-1. E. Belozoglu (51'), A. Sousa (55'), E. Mendes (79') and E. Watt (89') were booked. On current ratings the model puts Kasımpaşa at around 1.96 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Samsunspor's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive defeats. Expected goals put the gap at 1.93 to 0.61. The card tally for Kasımpaşa was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Kasımpaşa. Samsunspor picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Samsunspor was five.