Across 24 recorded meetings back to 2014 the split is 5-8-11 from Konyaspor's side on wins, 22-36 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-2 in Süper Lig. Currently 1548 against 1702 — a 25.1% / 24.9% / 50.0% split.
The model's preferred outcome is Başakşehir at 50.0%. The tie closed out 0-0. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 1.06 against 1.34 and 0.80. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Başakşehir's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 62.5%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.2% leads, but only just. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +48 and +202. The away side is rated higher. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 154 points. Expected goals come out at 1.12 to 1.93. Its point estimate is 1-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 24.9 points. Someone wins 75.1% of the time by this model. There is no trade-off to weigh: Başakşehir scores at the higher rate (1.34 to 0.94) and concedes at the lower (0.80 to 1.06). The three results cover 25.1 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 460 and 512 rated matches respectively.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Konyaspor: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; four goals scored, five conceded. Palestine were their latest opponents, at home on 30 September: a 2-2 draw.
2-2 was Konyaspor's result against Palestine on 30 September (International Friendlies), playing at home; Konyaspor drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 18 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Konyaspor with Kasımpaşa. Konyaspor drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Trabzonspor (Süper Lig), Konyaspor finished 1-0 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 5 September: Konyaspor lost 0-1 against Erzurumspor FK away from home in Süper Lig, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Kocaelispor in Süper Lig, Konyaspor scored one and conceded two on 29 August; the at home result was 1-2.
Başakşehir's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 11 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 win at home to Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 19 September.
4-0 was Başakşehir's result against Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 19 September (Süper Lig), playing at home; Başakşehir won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 13 September fixture (Süper Lig) paired Başakşehir with Amed. Başakşehir lost 0-5 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding five. Playing at home against Galatasaray (Süper Lig), Başakşehir finished 2-3 on 4 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 30 August: Başakşehir drew 1-1 against Kasımpaşa at home in Süper Lig, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Başakşehir scored one and conceded two on 23 August; the away from home result was 1-2.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-0 home win for Başakşehir on 27 February and a 2-1 home win for Konyaspor on 28 September 2025.
After the match
Konyaspor and Başakşehir could not be separated in a goalless draw on 11 October 2026. Konyaspor are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2025/26 Süper Lig, the 2026/27 Süper Lig and the 2026 International Friendlies. Konyaspor made four changes. Başakşehir: five substitutions. Konyaspor finished with a clean sheet. Başakşehir conceded no goals.