Across 4 recorded meetings back to 2024 the split is 1-3-0 in Eyüpspor's favour on wins, 2-1 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-0 in Süper Lig. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1443 and 1579 — 136 points — for a 27.1% / 25.5% / 47.4% split.
Neither component contradicts the other: Göztepe leads 1.19-0.68 forward and 1.14-1.48 back. 74.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Behind them are 77 and 257 rated matches. The two ratings differ by 136 points. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread across the three results is 21.9 points. Göztepe holds a 20.3-point edge on the next outcome. Raw profiles are 0.68 and 1.48 against 1.19 and 1.14. xG: 1.15 to 2.37. Top of the distribution: Göztepe, 47.4%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -57 and +79. Expected shares 39.9% against 60.1% on Elo. Point estimate: 1-2. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The away side is rated higher. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 9.6%. It ended 0-4.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
two goals for and 15 against accompanied Eyüpspor's one win and four defeats across five outings, failing to score in four of those games. An 8-0 defeat away to Fenerbahçe (20 September) was their most recent result.
Eyüpspor's away from home game on 20 September (Süper Lig) ended 0-8 against Fenerbahçe, with zero goals for and eight against. On 12 September, Rizespor faced Eyüpspor in Süper Lig: Eyüpspor lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. Süper Lig, 6 September brought an away meeting with Çorum FK; Eyüpspor lost 0-3, a return of zero goals scored and three conceded. Eyüpspor hosted Alanyaspor on 30 August (Süper Lig) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Gaziantep FK travelled to face Eyüpspor (Süper Lig) on 23 August. For Eyüpspor, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
Göztepe arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring eight goals and conceding 12. A 2-2 draw at home to Rizespor (20 September) was their most recent result.
Göztepe's at home game on 20 September (Süper Lig) ended 2-2 against Rizespor, with two goals for and two against. On 12 September, Alanyaspor faced Göztepe in Süper Lig: Göztepe drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Süper Lig, 7 September brought a home meeting with Gaziantep FK; Göztepe lost 2-4, a return of two goals scored and four conceded. Göztepe visited Galatasaray on 29 August (Süper Lig) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Gençlerbirliği S.K. travelled to face Göztepe (Süper Lig) on 23 August. For Göztepe, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
Previous meetings in our records: a 0-0 draw at Göztepe on 28 February and a 0-0 draw at Eyüpspor on 27 September 2025.
After the match
Göztepe overwhelmed Eyüpspor 4-0 on 12 October 2026. Juan opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 11 minutes for Göztepe to make it 1-0. Andre Henrique added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for Göztepe, set up by R. Akonnor, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Göztepe extended the lead through Andre Henrique 59 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Andre Henrique scored the 4th goal for Göztepe from the penalty spot 76 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. A. Abdullahi (10') was sent off. A. Yasar (41'), Juan (41'), K. Michalak (47') and A. Antunes (48') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Göztepe 136 points stronger than Eyüpspor. Eyüpspor's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats. Expected goals put the gap at 0.73 to 3.02. Göztepe won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 4 meetings without a win. The card tally for Eyüpspor was two yellow cards and one red card. Eyüpspor made five changes. Göztepe picked up two yellow cards. Göztepe: five substitutions. Göztepe conceded no goals.