On file: 29 previous meetings dating to 2012, 45-44 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-3 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1515 against 1510 — a 47.3% / 25.5% / 27.2% split.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +15 and +10. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model gives 74.5% to someone winning. Spread across the three results is 21.8 points. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 8.8%. The ratings draw on 539 and 529 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The tie closed out 3-1. xG: 1.95 to 1.63. Portland Timbers's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 59.9%. Rating separation comes to 5 points. The two halves pull apart — Portland Timbers better going forward at 1.37, Houston Dynamo tighter at the back on 0.96. The gap between first and second outcome is 20.1 points, Portland Timbers ahead of Houston Dynamo. The forecast we stored before the match was 38.4% / 27.5% / 34.1%. It landed. Raw profiles are 1.37 and 1.30 against 0.93 and 0.96.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Portland Timbers: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; nine goals scored, nine conceded. Latest: a 3-2 win away to St. Louis City on 29 October.
On 29 October, St. Louis City faced Portland Timbers in Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers won 3-2 away from home, having scored three and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 25 October brought a home meeting with Charlotte; Portland Timbers won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Portland Timbers hosted Colorado Rapids on 18 October (Major League Soccer) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Los Angeles Galaxy hosted Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer) on 15 October. For Portland Timbers, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 3-3 was Portland Timbers's result against Sporting Kansas City on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Portland Timbers drew, with three scored to three conceded.
Houston Dynamo: one win and four draws over five games; eight goals scored, seven conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Seattle Sounders on 29 October.
Playing away from home against Seattle Sounders (Major League Soccer), Houston Dynamo finished 1-0 on 29 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 25 October: Houston Dynamo drew 0-0 against Minnesota United FC at home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against FC Dallas in Major League Soccer, Houston Dynamo scored two and conceded two on 18 October; the at home result was 2-2. Houston Dynamo's away from home game on 15 October (Major League Soccer) ended 3-3 against San Diego, with three goals for and three against. On 11 October, Minnesota United FC faced Houston Dynamo in Major League Soccer: Houston Dynamo drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-2 home win for Houston Dynamo on 15 March and a 1-0 home win for Houston Dynamo on 21 September 2025.
After the match
Portland Timbers beat Houston Dynamo 3-1 at Providence Park, Portland, Oregon on 2 November 2026. David Da Costa opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Portland Timbers, set up by Vincent Janssen, to make it 1-0. Kristoffer Velde added to the tally 65 minutes into the game for Portland Timbers, set up by Vincent Janssen, to make it 2-0. Agustín Bouzat pulled one back 71 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo, set up by Duncan McGuire, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Portland Timbers extended the lead through Vincent Janssen 78 minutes into the game, set up by David Da Costa, to make it 3-1. Ian Smith (18'), Diadie Samassekou (40'), Agustin Resch (61') and Diego Chará (93') were booked. Portland Timbers are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Expected goals put the gap at 3.32 to 0.53. Portland Timbers: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Portland Timbers. The card tally for Houston Dynamo was two yellow cards. Houston Dynamo made five changes.