On file: 11 previous meetings dating to 2021, 19-24 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Major League Soccer. The present numbers are 1531 against 1649, and the model turns that into 29.4% / 26.2% / 44.4%.
Neither figure is thin: 523 and 249 matches respectively sit behind them. The forecast we stored before the match was 30.6% / 26.5% / 42.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Someone wins 73.8% of the time by this model. As a single number the model says 2-2. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-2 at 6.8%. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Distance between the ratings: 118 points, wide on this scale. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Most and least likely outcomes are 18.2 points apart. 44.4% goes to Inter Miami, the model's lean. A 15.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The two halves pull apart — Inter Miami better going forward at 1.74, New England Revolution tighter at the back on 1.10. The four component numbers read 1.19, 1.10, 1.74, 1.16. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +31 and +149.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
New England Revolution's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 8 conceded. New York Red Bulls were their latest opponents, at home on 28 October: a 3-2 win.
New England Revolution hosted New York Red Bulls on 28 October (Major League Soccer) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Philadelphia Union hosted New England Revolution (Major League Soccer) on 24 October. For New England Revolution, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was New England Revolution's result against Chicago Fire on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; New England Revolution won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 14 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired New England Revolution with FC Cincinnati. New England Revolution won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Seattle Sounders (Major League Soccer), New England Revolution finished 0-3 on 10 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition.
Inter Miami's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 5 conceded. FC Cincinnati were their latest opponents, at home on 28 October: a 2-2 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to DC United on 10 October.
Inter Miami hosted FC Cincinnati on 28 October (Major League Soccer) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. New York Red Bulls hosted Inter Miami (Major League Soccer) on 24 October. For Inter Miami, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Inter Miami's result against Atlanta United FC on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Inter Miami won, with three scored to one conceded. The 14 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Inter Miami with New York City FC. Inter Miami won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against DC United (Major League Soccer), Inter Miami finished 4-0 on 10 October. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-1 draw at Inter Miami on 25 April and a 4-1 home win for Inter Miami on 4 October 2025.
After the match
Inter Miami edged past New England Revolution 2-1 at Boston Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts on 2 November 2026. Dániel Gazdag opened the scoring 53 minutes into the game for New England Revolution, set up by Ilay Feingold, to make it 1-0. Germán Berterame levelled it 69 minutes into the game for Inter Miami, set up by Lionel Messi, to make it 1-1. Lionel Messi put Inter Miami in front late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Telasco Segovia, to make it 2-1. Gonzalo Lujan (25'), Matías Galarza (75'), Telasco Segovia (85') and Luca Daniel·Langoni (96') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. New England Revolution picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for New England Revolution was three. The card tally for Inter Miami was three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Inter Miami. The scoring record shows one lead change. The winners, Inter Miami, had been behind.