20 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 29-29. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in Major League Soccer. Against that, current ratings read 1410 and 1448, a 38-point margin, and the model splits the tie 40.4% / 27.0% / 32.5%.
0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 7.8%. Before kickoff our model had this at 36.2% / 28.0% / 35.8%. It landed. The xG line reads 2.09 to 1.87. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. In absolute terms: Atlanta United FC 1.04/1.28, Toronto FC 1.08/1.36 on attack and defence. Neither side holds both halves — Toronto FC scores at 1.08, Atlanta United FC concedes at 1.28. Win-or-lose totals 72.9%; the draw takes the rest. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -90 and -52. Played and finished 3-1. Higher rating: the away side. Top of the distribution: Atlanta United FC, 40.4%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 358 and 530 matches. Most and least likely outcomes are 13.4 points apart. Distance between the ratings: 38 points, moderate on this scale. Toronto FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 46.1%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Atlanta United FC's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 11 conceded. New York City FC were their latest opponents, away on 28 October: a 2-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to CF Montreal on 14 October.
Atlanta United FC visited New York City FC on 28 October (Major League Soccer) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Chicago Fire travelled to face Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer) on 24 October. For Atlanta United FC, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 1-3 was Atlanta United FC's result against Inter Miami on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Atlanta United FC lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 14 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Atlanta United FC with CF Montreal. Atlanta United FC won 3-0 away from home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer), Atlanta United FC finished 1-3 on 10 October. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition.
Toronto FC came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding nine. On 28 October, Toronto FC recorded a 2-1 win hosting DC United.
The 28 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Toronto FC with DC United. Toronto FC won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Columbus Crew (Major League Soccer), Toronto FC finished 2-4 on 24 October. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition. 17 October: Toronto FC won 2-0 against New York Red Bulls away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer, Toronto FC scored three and conceded three on 14 October; the at home result was 3-3. Toronto FC's at home game on 10 October (Major League Soccer) ended 2-1 against CF Montreal, with two goals for and one against.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Atlanta United FC on 25 April and a 0-0 draw at Atlanta United FC on 24 August 2025.
After the match
Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 3-1 at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta on 1 November 2026. Miguel Almirón opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Atlanta United FC, set up by Aleksey Miranchuk, to make it 1-0. Cooper Sanchez added to the tally in the 40th minute for Atlanta United FC, set up by Miguel Almirón, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Atlanta United FC extended the lead through Aleksey Miranchuk 51 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Lewis Morgan got one back 79 minutes into the game for Toronto FC, set up by Josh Sargent, to make it 1-3. Dániel Sallói (33') and Alonso (92') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Toronto FC slightly the stronger side, by 38 rating points over Atlanta United FC, even though it was Atlanta United FC who won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 4.27 to 1.28. The substitution total for Atlanta United FC was four. Toronto FC: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Toronto FC.