On file: 11 previous meetings dating to 2021, 17-13 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in Major League Soccer. The present numbers are 1491 against 1421, and the model turns that into 56.8% / 23.3% / 19.9%.
Scorelines above 8%: 0. A 36.9-point range top to bottom. Neither component contradicts the other: Los Angeles Galaxy leads 1.20-0.96 forward and 1.36-1.43 back. A 70-point difference on the rating scale. Played and finished 4-1. 56.8% goes to Los Angeles Galaxy, the model's lean. The underlying goal expectation is 2.55 for Los Angeles Galaxy, 1.77 for Austin. Los Angeles Galaxy sits 33.5 points above the next most likely result. Win-or-lose totals 76.7%; the draw takes the rest. Expected shares 68.5% against 31.5% on Elo. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -9 and -79. No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 7.7%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher rating belongs to the home side. As a single number the model says 2-1. Behind them are 534 and 210 rated matches. In absolute terms: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.20/1.36, Austin 0.96/1.43 on attack and defence.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Los Angeles Galaxy: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; 11 goals scored, 12 conceded. Latest: a 2-2 draw away to Los Angeles FC on 26 October.
On 26 October, Los Angeles FC faced Los Angeles Galaxy in Major League Soccer: Los Angeles Galaxy drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 18 October brought a home meeting with San Diego; Los Angeles Galaxy drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Los Angeles Galaxy hosted Portland Timbers on 15 October (Major League Soccer) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. St. Louis City hosted Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer) on 11 October. For Los Angeles Galaxy, the score was 2-6: two goals scored, six allowed. 3-2 was Los Angeles Galaxy's result against Colorado Rapids on 27 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Los Angeles Galaxy won, with three scored to two conceded.
Austin: one win and four defeats over five games; six goals scored, 12 conceded. Real Salt Lake were their latest opponents, at home on 29 October: a 2-1 defeat.
Playing at home against Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Austin finished 1-2 on 29 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 25 October: Austin won 2-1 against Sporting Kansas City away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Vancouver Whitecaps in Major League Soccer, Austin scored one and conceded two on 18 October; the at home result was 1-2. Austin's away from home game on 15 October (Major League Soccer) ended 1-3 against Los Angeles FC, with one goal for and three against. On 11 October, Nashville SC faced Austin in Major League Soccer: Austin lost 1-4 at home, having scored one and conceded four.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Los Angeles Galaxy on 11 April and a 2-1 away win for Austin on 17 July 2025.
After the match
Los Angeles Galaxy comfortably beat Austin 4-1 at Dignity Health Sports Park, Los Angeles on 31 October 2026. Klauss opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Los Angeles Galaxy, set up by Harbor Miller, to make it 1-0. Hirving Lozano added to the tally in the 38th minute for Los Angeles Galaxy, set up by Marco Reus, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Los Angeles Galaxy extended the lead through Robert Taylor 48 minutes into the game, set up by Marco Reus, to make it 3-0. Ervin Torres got one back 54 minutes into the game for Austin, set up by Micah Burton, to make it 1-3. Sergi Roberto scored the 5th goal for Los Angeles Galaxy 66 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Marco Reus, to make it 4-1. Besard Sabovic (23') and Marco Reus (87') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Los Angeles Galaxy are 70 points stronger than Austin. Los Angeles Galaxy won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 56.8%. Los Angeles Galaxy are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Los Angeles Galaxy: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Los Angeles Galaxy. one yellow card went to Austin. Austin: five substitutions.