On record: 15 meetings from 2018, 21-16 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-0 in Major League Soccer. Today those sides rate 1558 and 1520, 38 apart, which resolves to 52.2% / 24.4% / 23.4%.
Before kickoff our model had this at 62.1% / 21.9% / 16.0%. The result went the other way. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 38 points. The three results cover 28.8 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-1. Los Angeles FC leads the distribution by 27.8 points over the draw. Elo expected shares: 64.4% and 35.6%. xG: 2.33 to 1.62. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 332 and 342 matches. The four component numbers read 1.22, 0.91, 1.32, 1.28. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.32 to 1.22 says Minnesota United FC, 0.91 to 1.28 says Los Angeles FC. Scorelines above 8%: 1. The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 8.5% leads, but only just. Someone wins 75.6% of the time by this model. Los Angeles FC carries the largest share, 52.2%. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +58 and +20.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Los Angeles FC's previous five results comprised one win, three draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 6 conceded. Los Angeles Galaxy were their latest opponents, at home on 26 October: a 2-2 draw.
Playing at home against Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer), Los Angeles FC finished 2-2 on 26 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 17 October: Los Angeles FC drew 1-1 against New York City FC away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Austin in Major League Soccer, Los Angeles FC scored three and conceded one on 15 October; the at home result was 3-1. Los Angeles FC's at home game on 11 October (Major League Soccer) ended 1-1 against Vancouver Whitecaps, with one goal for and one against. On 27 September, FC Dallas faced Los Angeles FC in Major League Soccer: Los Angeles FC lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one.
Minnesota United FC's previous five results comprised two wins and three draws. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 7 conceded, with no defeats. Sporting Kansas City were their latest opponents, at home on 29 October: a 3-1 win.
Minnesota United FC hosted Sporting Kansas City on 29 October (Major League Soccer) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Houston Dynamo hosted Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer) on 25 October. For Minnesota United FC, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 3-2 was Minnesota United FC's result against St. Louis City on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Minnesota United FC won, with three scored to two conceded. The 15 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Minnesota United FC with Colorado Rapids. Minnesota United FC drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Houston Dynamo (Major League Soccer), Minnesota United FC finished 2-2 on 11 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 away win for Los Angeles FC on 25 April and a 1-0 away win for Los Angeles FC on 17 July 2025.
After the match
Minnesota United FC beat Los Angeles FC 3-1 on 2 November 2026. Joaquín Pereyra opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Minnesota United FC to make it 1-0. Cherrion Valerius added to the tally in the 34th minute for Minnesota United FC, set up by Kelvin Yeboah, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Minnesota United FC extended the lead through Joaquín Pereyra late on, in the 81st minute, set up by Mauricio González Carabalí, to make it 3-0. Sergio Vasquez got one back late on, in the 89th minute for Los Angeles FC to make it 1-3. 7 players were booked, among them Igor Jesus (46'), Joaquín Pereyra (50'), Eddie Segura (58'), Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño (60'), Morris Duggan (74') and Tyler Boyd (84'). Our current Elo ratings make Los Angeles FC slightly the stronger side, by 38 rating points over Minnesota United FC, even though it was Minnesota United FC who won this one. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Minnesota United FC only a 23.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Minnesota United FC are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Los Angeles FC picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Los Angeles FC was five. Minnesota United FC picked up four yellow cards. Minnesota United FC: four substitutions.