On file: 12 previous meetings dating to 2022, 12-22 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-4 in Major League Soccer. The present numbers are 1573 against 1527, and the model turns that into 53.3% / 24.1% / 22.6%.
First to second is a 29.2-point step, Charlotte over the draw. Its point estimate is 3-2. Versus the 1500 seed: +73 and +27. Both figures rest on decent samples, 176 and 419 matches. A 30.7-point range top to bottom. The four component numbers read 1.49, 1.02, 1.52, 1.58. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 48.0% / 25.4% / 26.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Expected shares 65.5% against 34.5% on Elo. Win-or-lose totals 75.9%; the draw takes the rest. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-2 at 5.8%. Final score: 4-0. The home side is rated higher. Orlando City SC has the better scoring rate (1.52) and Charlotte the better defensive one (1.02). Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The underlying goal expectation is 3.48 for Charlotte, 2.10 for Orlando City SC. Top of the distribution: Charlotte, 53.3%. 46 points of rating separation.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and ten against accompanied Charlotte's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 28 October, Charlotte recorded a 4-0 win hosting CF Montreal.
CF Montreal travelled to face Charlotte (Major League Soccer) on 28 October. For Charlotte, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 2-3 was Charlotte's result against Portland Timbers on 25 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Charlotte lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 17 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Charlotte with Philadelphia Union. Charlotte drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Columbus Crew (Major League Soccer), Charlotte finished 1-3 on 14 October. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 10 October: Charlotte won 3-2 against FC Dallas at home in Major League Soccer, scoring three goals and allowing two.
Orlando City SC were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring 14 goals and conceding ten. On 29 October, Orlando City SC recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Chicago Fire; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to DC United on 17 October.
The 29 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Orlando City SC with Chicago Fire. Orlando City SC drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against New York City FC (Major League Soccer), Orlando City SC finished 2-2 on 24 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 17 October: Orlando City SC won 4-1 against DC United at home in Major League Soccer, scoring four goals and allowing one. Against Toronto FC in Major League Soccer, Orlando City SC scored three and conceded three on 14 October; the away from home result was 3-3. Orlando City SC's at home game on 10 October (Major League Soccer) ended 3-2 against Columbus Crew, with three goals for and two against.
The last two recorded meetings were a 4-1 home win for Orlando City SC on 22 April and a 2-2 draw at Charlotte on 5 July 2025.
After the match
Charlotte overwhelmed Orlando City SC 4-0 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte on 31 October 2026. Henry Kessler opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Charlotte, set up by Ashley Westwood, to make it 1-0. Allan Saint-Maximin added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Charlotte, set up by Harry Toffolo, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Charlotte extended the lead through Abdoulaye Doucouré late on, in the 84th minute to make it 3-0. Rodolfo Aloko scored the 4th goal for Charlotte in the 94th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Tyger Smalls, to make it 4-0. Allan Saint-Maximin (89') was sent off. Iago Teodoro (25'), Ashley Westwood (61'), Iván Angulo (82') and Tyger Smalls (93') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Expected goals put the gap at 2.34 to 0.9. two yellow cards and one red card went to Charlotte. The substitution total for Charlotte was four. Orlando City SC picked up two yellow cards. Orlando City SC: five substitutions. Charlotte conceded no goals.