12 meetings sit in the record, first in 2021, aggregate 17-22. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1421 and 1485 drive a 36.3% / 27.9% / 35.8% distribution.
The four component numbers read 0.96, 1.43, 1.08, 1.14. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals come out at 1.63 to 2.10. Its rounded call is 1-2. Logged in advance of kickoff — 44.4% / 26.2% / 29.4%. The match did not follow it. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 64 points. Result on the day: 1-2. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 72.1% against 27.9% for the draw. Neither component contradicts the other: Real Salt Lake leads 1.08-0.96 forward and 1.14-1.43 back. The higher rating expects 49.9% of the points, the lower 50.1%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 210 and 531 matches. Top of the distribution: Austin, 36.3%. All three results are bunched inside 8.4 points. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.6%. The top two outcomes are within 0.5 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and 13 against accompanied Austin's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 25 October, Austin recorded a 2-1 win visiting Sporting Kansas City.
Sporting Kansas City hosted Austin (Major League Soccer) on 25 October. For Austin, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-2 was Austin's result against Vancouver Whitecaps on 18 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Austin lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 15 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Austin with Los Angeles FC. Austin lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Nashville SC (Major League Soccer), Austin finished 1-4 on 11 October. Their score comprised one goal, against four from the opposition. 27 September: Austin drew 3-3 against San Diego at home in Major League Soccer, scoring three goals and allowing three.
Real Salt Lake: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 11 goals scored, four conceded. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to St. Louis City on 25 October.
3-0 was Real Salt Lake's result against St. Louis City on 25 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Real Salt Lake won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 18 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Real Salt Lake with Sporting Kansas City. Real Salt Lake won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer), Real Salt Lake finished 1-1 on 15 October. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 10 October: Real Salt Lake lost 1-2 against Philadelphia Union away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against New England Revolution in Major League Soccer, Real Salt Lake scored three and conceded zero on 27 September; the at home result was 3-0.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 home win for Real Salt Lake on 15 March and a 3-1 home win for Real Salt Lake on 28 September 2025.
After the match
Real Salt Lake edged past Austin 2-1 at Q2 Stadium, Austin on 29 October 2026. Jorge Alastuey opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for Austin to make it 1-0. Saba Lobjanidze levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Real Salt Lake, set up by Juan Sanabria, to make it 1-1. Morgan Guilavogui put Real Salt Lake in front 61 minutes into the game, set up by Sergi Solans, to make it 2-1. Morgan Guilavogui (35'), Damian Las (61') and Jorge Alastuey (77') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Real Salt Lake are 64 points stronger than Austin. Every goal came after the interval. Expected goals put the gap at 0.92 to 2.21. The card tally for Austin was two yellow cards. Austin made four changes. one yellow card went to Real Salt Lake. Real Salt Lake: five substitutions. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Real Salt Lake won after falling behind.