On record: 10 meetings from 2012, 11-13 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 1-1 in Major League Soccer. The live ratings are 1566 and 1563, giving 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.6%.
Win-or-lose totals 74.4%; the draw takes the rest. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 57.0% / 23.2% / 19.7%. The result went the other way. Top of the distribution: FC Dallas, 46.8%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.0%. Neither component contradicts the other: Columbus Crew leads 1.37-1.23 forward and 0.99-1.10 back. Raw profiles are 1.23 and 1.10 against 1.37 and 0.99. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 59.7% and 40.3%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. On expected goals the model has it 1.81 against 2.03. The leading outcome clears the second by 19.2 points. Result on the day: 0-2. Rounded, that is 1-2. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 3 points. A 21.2-point range top to bottom. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +66 and +63.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
FC Dallas came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding five, keeping three clean sheets. On 25 October, FC Dallas recorded a 3-0 win hosting San Jose Earthquakes.
Major League Soccer, 25 October brought a home meeting with San Jose Earthquakes; FC Dallas won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. FC Dallas visited Houston Dynamo on 18 October (Major League Soccer) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Seattle Sounders travelled to face FC Dallas (Major League Soccer) on 15 October. For FC Dallas, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-3 was FC Dallas's result against Charlotte on 10 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; FC Dallas lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired FC Dallas with Los Angeles FC. FC Dallas won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero.
Columbus Crew: four wins and one defeat over five games; 13 goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 4-2 win at home to Toronto FC on 24 October.
4-2 was Columbus Crew's result against Toronto FC on 24 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Columbus Crew won, with four scored to two conceded. The 18 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Columbus Crew with FC Cincinnati. Columbus Crew won 2-0 away from home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Charlotte (Major League Soccer), Columbus Crew finished 3-1 on 14 October. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 10 October: Columbus Crew lost 2-3 against Orlando City SC away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Inter Miami in Major League Soccer, Columbus Crew scored two and conceded one on 27 September; the at home result was 2-1.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at FC Dallas on 24 September 2023 and a 2-2 draw at FC Dallas on 4 October 2020.
After the match
Columbus Crew beat FC Dallas 2-0 at Toyota Stadium(Texas), Frisco on 29 October 2026. Gonzalo Tapia opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Columbus Crew, set up by Anass Zaroury, to make it 1-0. Santiago Rodriguez added to the tally 70 minutes into the game for Columbus Crew to make it 2-0. nolan norris (16'), Shaquell Moore (31'), Christian Cappis (83'), Herman Johansson (87') and Marcelo Andrés Herrera (96') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Columbus Crew only a 27.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Columbus Crew's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive wins in the 2026 Major League Soccer. The card tally for FC Dallas was four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for FC Dallas. one yellow card went to Columbus Crew. The substitution total for Columbus Crew was four. Columbus Crew kept their opponents scoreless.