The head-to-head counts 34 recorded meetings since 2012: 11 to Toronto FC, 12 to DC United, 11 drawn, 53-56 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-2 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1468 and 1355 drive a 62.7% / 21.8% / 15.6% distribution.
Toronto FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 73.6%. Someone wins 78.3% of the time by this model. Played and finished 2-1. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 113 points. Toronto FC is ahead on each half — 1.10 to 0.78 in attack, 1.30 to 1.47 in defence. Before kickoff our model had this at 58.0% / 23.0% / 19.0%. That call matched the result. The home side is rated higher. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 529 and 516 matches. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -32 and -145. The model's preferred outcome is Toronto FC at 62.7%. Rounded, that is 2-1. A 47.1-point range top to bottom. First to second is a 40.9-point step, Toronto FC over the draw. Expected goals sit at 2.40 against 1.37. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Toronto FC came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding ten. On 24 October, Toronto FC recorded a 4-2 defeat visiting Columbus Crew.
Toronto FC's away from home game on 24 October (Major League Soccer) ended 2-4 against Columbus Crew, with two goals for and four against. On 17 October, New York Red Bulls faced Toronto FC in Major League Soccer: Toronto FC won 2-0 away from home, having scored two and conceded zero. Major League Soccer, 14 October brought a home meeting with Orlando City SC; Toronto FC drew 3-3, a return of three goals scored and three conceded. Toronto FC hosted CF Montreal on 10 October (Major League Soccer) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Nashville SC hosted Toronto FC (Major League Soccer) on 27 September. For Toronto FC, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed.
DC United: one win and four defeats over five games; four goals scored, 13 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat at home to FC Cincinnati on 24 October.
DC United hosted FC Cincinnati on 24 October (Major League Soccer) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. FC Cincinnati hosted DC United (Major League Soccer) on 21 October. For DC United, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-4 was DC United's result against Orlando City SC on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; DC United lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 14 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired DC United with New York Red Bulls. DC United won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Inter Miami (Major League Soccer), DC United finished 0-4 on 10 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 home win for DC United on 25 July and a 2-0 home win for Toronto FC on 10 May 2025.
After the match
Toronto FC edged past DC United 2-1 at BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario on 28 October 2026. Andre Dozzell opened the scoring in the 29th minute for DC United, set up by Silvan Hefti, to make it 1-0. Jonathan Osorio levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Toronto FC, set up by Josh Sargent, to make it 1-1. Josh Sargent put Toronto FC in front late on, in the 86th minute to make it 2-1. Niklas Dorsch (33'), Dániel Sallói (50'), Kye Rowles (50'), Kimito Nono (58'), Jared Stroud (60') and Matheus Pereira de Souza (84') were booked. 62.7% is Toronto FC's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. DC United's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Toronto FC: three yellow cards. three changes were recorded for Toronto FC. The card tally for DC United was three yellow cards. two changes were recorded for DC United. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. The winners, Toronto FC, had been behind.