On record: 9 meetings from 2022, 8-13 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-1 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1573 against 1351 — a 74.9% / 18.0% / 7.1% split.
82.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The single-scoreline output is 3-0. Outcomes span 67.8 points. The underlying goal expectation is 3.14 for Charlotte, 0.95 for CF Montreal. Charlotte's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 83.9%. Charlotte carries the largest share, 74.9%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 72.7% / 18.8% / 8.6%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The rating gap itself is 222 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +73 and -149. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-0 on 8.7%. Charlotte holds both halves of the profile — 1.49 against 0.69 for scoring, 1.02 against 1.42 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. First to second is a 56.9-point step, Charlotte over the draw. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Attack/defence pairs: 1.49/1.02 and 0.69/1.42. Result on the day: 4-0.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Charlotte came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding 11. A 3-2 defeat away to Portland Timbers (25 October) was their most recent result.
Charlotte's away from home game on 25 October (Major League Soccer) ended 2-3 against Portland Timbers, with two goals for and three against. On 17 October, Philadelphia Union faced Charlotte in Major League Soccer: Charlotte drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 14 October brought an away meeting with Columbus Crew; Charlotte lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Charlotte hosted FC Dallas on 10 October (Major League Soccer) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Chicago Fire travelled to face Charlotte (Major League Soccer) on 26 September. For Charlotte, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
CF Montreal's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 9 conceded. Nashville SC were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 2-0 defeat.
Against Nashville SC in Major League Soccer, CF Montreal scored zero and conceded two on 24 October; the at home result was 0-2. CF Montreal's away from home game on 18 October (Major League Soccer) ended 1-1 against Seattle Sounders, with one goal for and one against. On 14 October, Atlanta United FC faced CF Montreal in Major League Soccer: CF Montreal lost 0-3 at home, having scored zero and conceded three. Major League Soccer, 10 October brought an away meeting with Toronto FC; CF Montreal lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. CF Montreal hosted FC Cincinnati on 26 September (Major League Soccer) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Charlotte on 9 September and a 4-1 away win for CF Montreal on 27 September 2025.
After the match
Charlotte overwhelmed CF Montreal 4-0 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte on 28 October 2026. Idan Toklomati Jorno opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Charlotte, set up by Allan Saint-Maximin, to make it 1-0. Liel Abada added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Charlotte, set up by Djibril Diani, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Charlotte extended the lead through Liel Abada 79 minutes into the game, set up by Idan Toklomati Jorno, to make it 3-0. Liel Abada scored the 4th goal for Charlotte late on, in the 83rd minute as they extended the lead, set up by Pep Biel, to make it 4-0. Efrain Morales (64'), Daniel Pereira (86') and Fabian Herbers (92') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Charlotte 222 points stronger than CF Montreal. Charlotte won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 74.9%. Charlotte: five substitutions. CF Montreal: three yellow cards. CF Montreal made five changes. Charlotte kept their opponents scoreless.