Prior record: 13-6-16 across 35 since 2012. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1543 and 1440 drive a 61.5% / 22.1% / 16.4% distribution.
New England Revolution's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 72.5%. Between best and worst outcome there is 45.1 points of daylight. The two ratings differ by 103 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 522 and 547 matches. In absolute terms: New England Revolution 1.22/1.07, New York Red Bulls 0.92/1.25 on attack and defence. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The gap between first and second outcome is 39.4 points, New England Revolution ahead of the draw. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. On expected goals the model has it 2.25 against 1.33. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 60.7% / 22.3% / 17.0%. It landed. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.4%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Versus the 1500 seed: +43 and -60. Point estimate: 2-1. Neither component contradicts the other: New England Revolution leads 1.22-0.92 forward and 1.07-1.25 back. Final score: 3-2.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and nine against accompanied New England Revolution's three wins and two defeats across five outings. A 2-1 win away to Philadelphia Union (24 October) was their most recent result.
Philadelphia Union hosted New England Revolution (Major League Soccer) on 24 October. For New England Revolution, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was New England Revolution's result against Chicago Fire on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; New England Revolution won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 14 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired New England Revolution with FC Cincinnati. New England Revolution won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Seattle Sounders (Major League Soccer), New England Revolution finished 0-3 on 10 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 27 September: New England Revolution lost 0-3 against Real Salt Lake away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing three.
New York Red Bulls's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 8 conceded. Inter Miami were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to San Diego on 10 October.
Against Inter Miami in Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls scored two and conceded zero on 24 October; the at home result was 2-0. New York Red Bulls's at home game on 17 October (Major League Soccer) ended 0-2 against Toronto FC, with zero goals for and two against. On 14 October, DC United faced New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer: New York Red Bulls lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 10 October brought a home meeting with San Diego; New York Red Bulls won 4-1, a return of four goals scored and one conceded. New York Red Bulls hosted St. Louis City on 30 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 home win for New York Red Bulls on 28 February and a 5-3 home win for New York Red Bulls on 16 July 2025.
After the match
New England Revolution edged past New York Red Bulls 3-2 at Boston Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts on 28 October 2026. Dor Turgeman opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for New England Revolution, set up by Carles Gil, to make it 1-0. Dor Turgeman added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for New England Revolution, set up by Luca Daniel·Langoni, to make it 2-0. Cade Cowell pulled one back 51 minutes into the game for New York Red Bulls, set up by Ronald Donkor, to make it 1-2. Julian Hall levelled it 64 minutes into the game for New York Red Bulls, set up by Emil Forsberg, to make it 2-2. New England Revolution regained the lead through Dániel Gazdag late on, in the 83rd minute to make it 3-2. Ronald Donkor (12'), Ilay Feingold (40'), Dylan Nealis (48'), Julian Hall (76') and Judah Siqueira (93') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have New England Revolution 103 points stronger than New York Red Bulls. New England Revolution's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 61.5% for a win in this pairing. New England Revolution's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 Major League Soccer. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.16 to 0.99. New England Revolution: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for New England Revolution. The card tally for New York Red Bulls was three yellow cards. New York Red Bulls made five changes.