The model has no meaningful preference: 1498 against 1573, split 34.8% / 27.7% / 37.6%.
Both components point the same way, toward Charlotte: 1.49 to 1.32 going forward, 1.02 to 1.34 going back. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 6.7%. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Charlotte carries the largest share, 37.6%. The match finished 3-2. The top two outcomes are within 2.8 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. A 9.9-point range covers every outcome here. The ratings draw on 538 and 176 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Before kickoff our model had this at 32.5% / 27.0% / 40.5%. The result went the other way. Rating separation comes to 75 points. Win-or-lose totals 72.4%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals come out at 2.00 to 2.68. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 48.6% to 51.4%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The four component numbers read 1.32, 1.34, 1.49, 1.02. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2024, 0-2 in Major League Soccer; not enough to lean on.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Portland Timbers arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring four goals and conceding nine, failing to score in three of those games. On 18 October, Portland Timbers recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Colorado Rapids.
Portland Timbers's at home game on 18 October (Major League Soccer) ended 0-0 against Colorado Rapids, with zero goals for and zero against. On 15 October, Los Angeles Galaxy faced Portland Timbers in Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 11 October brought an away meeting with Sporting Kansas City; Portland Timbers drew 3-3, a return of three goals scored and three conceded. Portland Timbers visited San Jose Earthquakes on 27 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Atlanta United FC travelled to face Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer) on 20 September. For Portland Timbers, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed.
eight goals for and nine against accompanied Charlotte's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 17 October, Charlotte recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Philadelphia Union.
Charlotte's away from home game on 17 October (Major League Soccer) ended 2-2 against Philadelphia Union, with two goals for and two against. On 14 October, Columbus Crew faced Charlotte in Major League Soccer: Charlotte lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. Major League Soccer, 10 October brought a home meeting with FC Dallas; Charlotte won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Charlotte hosted Chicago Fire on 26 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. DC United hosted Charlotte (Major League Soccer) on 19 September. For Charlotte, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
The last recorded meeting was a 2-0 home win for Charlotte on 4 May 2024.
After the match
Portland Timbers edged past Charlotte 3-2 at Providence Park, Portland, Oregon on 25 October 2026. Pep Biel opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Charlotte, set up by Ashley Westwood, to make it 1-0. Ariel Lassiter levelled it inside the first 11 minutes for Portland Timbers, set up by Eric Izoita, to make it 1-1. Ariel Lassiter put Portland Timbers in front in the 40th minute, set up by Eric Izoita, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Charlotte drew level through Idan Toklomati Jorno 69 minutes into the game, set up by Luca De La Torre, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Portland Timbers restored the lead through Cole Bassett in the 96th minute to make it 3-2. Eric Izoita (17') and Nathan Byrne (45') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Charlotte slightly the stronger side, by 75 rating points over Portland Timbers, even though it was Portland Timbers who won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 2.67 to 0.9. Portland Timbers won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. Portland Timbers picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Portland Timbers was four. one yellow card went to Charlotte. The substitution total for Charlotte was four. The scoring record shows one lead change. Portland Timbers won after falling behind.