On record: 7 meetings from 2023, 13-12 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1485 and 1537 drive a 38.0% / 27.6% / 34.5% distribution.
A decisive result carries 72.5% against 27.6% for the draw. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 7.6% — not a strong call. Only 3.5 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The forecast we stored before the match was 25.5% / 25.0% / 49.4%. The result went the other way. The three outcomes sit within 10.4 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. A 52-point spread sits between the two figures. As a single number the model says 1-2. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 531 and 139 rated matches respectively. Higher rating: the away side. Most likely single result is Real Salt Lake on 38.0%. Raw profiles are 1.08 and 1.14 against 1.38 and 1.18. It ended 3-0. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -15 and +37. The split is one apiece: St. Louis City leads the attacking rate on 1.38, Real Salt Lake the defensive on 1.14.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Real Salt Lake came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding six. On 18 October, Real Salt Lake recorded a 3-1 win visiting Sporting Kansas City; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to New England Revolution on 27 September.
18 October: Real Salt Lake won 3-1 against Sporting Kansas City away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer, Real Salt Lake scored one and conceded one on 15 October; the at home result was 1-1. Real Salt Lake's away from home game on 10 October (Major League Soccer) ended 1-2 against Philadelphia Union, with one goal for and two against. On 27 September, New England Revolution faced Real Salt Lake in Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Major League Soccer, 24 September brought an away meeting with Seattle Sounders; Real Salt Lake lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded.
St. Louis City: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 14 goals scored, six conceded. Minnesota United FC were their latest opponents, away on 17 October: a 3-2 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy on 11 October.
2-3 was St. Louis City's result against Minnesota United FC on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; St. Louis City lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 15 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired St. Louis City with Vancouver Whitecaps. St. Louis City drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer), St. Louis City finished 6-2 on 11 October. Their score comprised six goals, against two from the opposition. 30 September: St. Louis City won 3-0 against New York Red Bulls away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Toronto FC in Major League Soccer, St. Louis City scored three and conceded one on 20 September; the at home result was 3-1.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at St. Louis City on 2 August and a 2-2 draw at St. Louis City on 19 October 2025.
After the match
Real Salt Lake comfortably beat St. Louis City 3-0 at Rio Tinto Stadium, Sandy on 25 October 2026. Sergi Solans opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Real Salt Lake, set up by Morgan Guilavogui, to make it 1-0. Dominik Marczuk added to the tally 52 minutes into the game for Real Salt Lake, set up by Luc De Fougerolles, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Real Salt Lake extended the lead through Sergi Solans 59 minutes into the game, set up by Saba Lobjanidze, to make it 3-0. Tomas Ostrak (43') was sent off. Rafael Santos (3'), Tomas Ostrak (29'), Philip Quinton (40') and Juan Sanabria (64') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make St. Louis City slightly the stronger side, by 52 rating points over Real Salt Lake, even though it was Real Salt Lake who won this one. St. Louis City's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Expected goals put the gap at 3.64 to 0.17. The card tally for Real Salt Lake was two yellow cards. Real Salt Lake made five changes. two yellow cards and one red card went to St. Louis City. St. Louis City: five substitutions. A clean sheet for Real Salt Lake.