22 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 28-31. The latest was 2026, 2-2 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1527 against 1492 — a 51.8% / 24.5% / 23.7% split.
The higher-rated side expects 64.0% of the points; the other side 36.0%. Result on the day: 0-0. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Someone wins 75.5% of the time by this model. The ratings draw on 528 and 341 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.84 and 1.50. 35 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Logged in advance of kickoff — 51.8% / 24.5% / 23.7%. The match did not follow it. 51.8% goes to Houston Dynamo, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 0.88 against 1.27 and 1.32. A 27.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.8%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +27 and -8.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and 11 against accompanied Houston Dynamo's four draws and one defeat across five outings, a winless run. A 2-2 draw at home to FC Dallas (18 October) was their most recent result.
Major League Soccer, 18 October brought a home meeting with FC Dallas; Houston Dynamo drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Houston Dynamo visited San Diego on 15 October (Major League Soccer) and drew 3-3; their goals totalled three, compared with three conceded. Minnesota United FC hosted Houston Dynamo (Major League Soccer) on 11 October. For Houston Dynamo, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 0-2 was Houston Dynamo's result against Sporting Kansas City on 27 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Houston Dynamo lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Houston Dynamo with FC Cincinnati. Houston Dynamo drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two.
Minnesota United FC: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, 12 conceded. Latest: a 3-2 win at home to St. Louis City on 17 October.
Minnesota United FC hosted St. Louis City on 17 October (Major League Soccer) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded. Colorado Rapids hosted Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer) on 15 October. For Minnesota United FC, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Minnesota United FC's result against Houston Dynamo on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Minnesota United FC drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Minnesota United FC with Seattle Sounders. Minnesota United FC lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer), Minnesota United FC finished 2-3 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-2 draw at Minnesota United FC on 11 October and a 3-1 home win for Minnesota United FC on 26 June 2025.
After the match
Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC could not be separated in a goalless draw at BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston on 25 October 2026. B. Olsen (45') was sent off. Antônio Carlos (9'), Agustín Bouzat (30'), Lawrence Ennali (34') and B. Olsen (44') were booked. Houston Dynamo are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Minnesota United FC are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Houston Dynamo picked up four yellow cards and one red card. The substitution total for Houston Dynamo was five. The substitution total for Minnesota United FC was four. Houston Dynamo conceded no goals. Minnesota United FC conceded no goals.