On file: 15 previous meetings dating to 2019, 22-18 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in Major League Soccer. The live ratings are 1355 and 1535, giving 22.1% / 24.0% / 53.9%.
Before kickoff our model had this at 30.8% / 26.5% / 42.7%. That call matched the result. 180 points of rating separation. Expected goals come out at 1.65 to 2.71. Top of the distribution: FC Cincinnati, 53.9%. Final score: 0-2. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. The ratings draw on 516 and 282 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Spread across the three results is 31.8 points. The four component numbers read 0.78, 1.47, 1.37, 1.43. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -145 and +35. There is no trade-off to weigh: FC Cincinnati scores at the higher rate (1.37 to 0.78) and concedes at the lower (1.43 to 1.47). 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 7.7%. FC Cincinnati leads the distribution by 29.9 points over the draw. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 34.0% to 66.0%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
DC United's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 14 conceded. FC Cincinnati were their latest opponents, away on 21 October: a 2-1 defeat.
1-2 was DC United's result against FC Cincinnati on 21 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; DC United lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 17 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired DC United with Orlando City SC. DC United lost 1-4 away from home, netting one goal while conceding four. Playing at home against New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer), DC United finished 2-1 on 14 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 10 October: DC United lost 0-4 against Inter Miami away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing four. Against Vancouver Whitecaps in Major League Soccer, DC United scored three and conceded three on 27 September; the away from home result was 3-3.
FC Cincinnati came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding ten. On 21 October, FC Cincinnati recorded a 2-1 win hosting DC United.
The 21 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired FC Cincinnati with DC United. FC Cincinnati won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Columbus Crew (Major League Soccer), FC Cincinnati finished 0-2 on 18 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 14 October: FC Cincinnati lost 2-3 against New England Revolution at home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer, FC Cincinnati scored three and conceded one on 10 October; the away from home result was 3-1. FC Cincinnati's away from home game on 26 September (Major League Soccer) ended 1-3 against CF Montreal, with one goal for and three against.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for FC Cincinnati on 21 October and a 2-1 away win for DC United on 31 May 2025.
After the match
FC Cincinnati beat DC United 2-0 at Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia on 24 October 2026. Evander opened the scoring in the 35th minute for FC Cincinnati, set up by Pavel Bucha, to make it 1-0. Tom Barlow added to the tally 52 minutes into the game for FC Cincinnati, set up by Evander, to make it 2-0. Obinna Nwobodo (24'), Tai Baribo (34') and Tom Barlow (38') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have FC Cincinnati 180 points stronger than DC United. DC United's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2026 Major League Soccer. FC Cincinnati are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. DC United: one yellow card. DC United made one change. two yellow cards went to FC Cincinnati. The substitution total for FC Cincinnati was three. FC Cincinnati kept their opponents scoreless.