On record: 28 meetings from 2015, 32-53 on aggregate, 9 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-5 in Major League Soccer. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1527 and 1517 — 10 points — for a 47.9% / 25.4% / 26.7% split.
Orlando City SC sits 21.2 points above the next most likely result. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. Rating separation comes to 10 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-2 at 7.2%. As a single number the model says 2-2. The home side is rated higher. Neither side holds both halves — Orlando City SC scores at 1.52, New York City FC concedes at 1.00. Orlando City SC carries the largest share, 47.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: +27 and +17. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Orlando City SC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 60.6%. The forecast we stored before the match was 49.7% / 25.0% / 25.3%. The match did not follow it. Attack/defence pairs: 1.52/1.58 and 1.00/1.00. Spread across the three results is 22.5 points.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Orlando City SC: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; 14 goals scored, 14 conceded. Latest: a 4-1 win at home to DC United on 17 October.
Orlando City SC hosted DC United on 17 October (Major League Soccer) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Toronto FC hosted Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer) on 14 October. For Orlando City SC, the score was 3-3: three goals scored, three allowed. 3-2 was Orlando City SC's result against Columbus Crew on 10 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Orlando City SC won, with three scored to two conceded. The 26 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Orlando City SC with Philadelphia Union. Orlando City SC lost 2-4 away from home, netting two goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against New England Revolution (Major League Soccer), Orlando City SC finished 2-4 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition.
New York City FC: two draws and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, eight conceded, without a win. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Los Angeles FC on 17 October.
1-1 was New York City FC's result against Los Angeles FC on 17 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; New York City FC drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 14 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired New York City FC with Inter Miami. New York City FC lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer), New York City FC finished 1-2 on 10 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 26 September: New York City FC drew 2-2 against Atlanta United FC away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer, New York City FC scored zero and conceded one on 18 September; the at home result was 0-1.
Previous meetings in our records: a 5-0 home win for New York City FC on 7 March and a 2-1 away win for New York City FC on 17 July 2025.
After the match
Orlando City SC and New York City FC drew 2-2 at Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Florida on 24 October 2026. Alonso Martinez opened the scoring in the 18th minute for New York City FC, set up by Hannes Wolf, to make it 1-0. Antoine Griezmann levelled it in the 32nd minute for Orlando City SC, set up by Martin Ojeda, to make it 1-1. Martin Ojeda put Orlando City SC in front 49 minutes into the game, set up by Vinicius Nogueira, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, New York City FC drew level through Jonathan Shore in the 99th minute, set up by James Sands, to make it 2-2. Vinicius Nogueira (38'), James Sands (44'), Iago Teodoro (63'), Wilder Cartagena (78') and Eduard Atuesta (86') were booked. New York City FC are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. The card tally for Orlando City SC was four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Orlando City SC. New York City FC picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for New York City FC was five. Across the goals, the lead switched one time.