12 meetings sit in the record, first in 2020, aggregate 7-18. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in Major League Soccer. Today those sides rate 1351 and 1692, 341 apart, which resolves to 7.8% / 18.3% / 73.9%.
Rounded, that is 0-2. Nashville SC sits 55.6 points above the next most likely result. Final score: 0-2. The two ratings differ by 341 points. Both components point the same way, toward Nashville SC: 1.41 to 0.69 going forward, 0.57 to 1.42 going back. Someone wins 81.7% of the time by this model. The four component numbers read 0.69, 1.42, 1.41, 0.57. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -149 and +192. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 17.0% to 83.0%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. xG: 0.59 to 2.70. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 9.7% / 19.3% / 71.0%. That call matched the result. Most likely single result is Nashville SC on 73.9%. A 66.1-point range top to bottom. Flat distribution — 0-2 tops it at just 13.6%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and nine against accompanied CF Montreal's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. A 1-1 draw away to Seattle Sounders (18 October) was their most recent result.
The 18 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired CF Montreal with Seattle Sounders. CF Montreal drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer), CF Montreal finished 0-3 on 14 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition. 10 October: CF Montreal lost 1-2 against Toronto FC away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against FC Cincinnati in Major League Soccer, CF Montreal scored three and conceded one on 26 September; the at home result was 3-1. CF Montreal's at home game on 19 September (Major League Soccer) ended 0-2 against Columbus Crew, with zero goals for and two against.
Nashville SC's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 14 scored and 2 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. San Jose Earthquakes were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Sporting Kansas City on 15 October.
On 18 October, San Jose Earthquakes faced Nashville SC in Major League Soccer: Nashville SC drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Major League Soccer, 15 October brought a home meeting with Sporting Kansas City; Nashville SC won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Nashville SC visited Austin on 11 October (Major League Soccer) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Toronto FC travelled to face Nashville SC (Major League Soccer) on 27 September. For Nashville SC, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Nashville SC's result against Chicago Fire on 20 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Nashville SC won, with three scored to zero conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Nashville SC on 23 July and a 1-1 draw at CF Montreal on 4 October 2025.
After the match
Nashville SC beat CF Montreal 2-0 at Saputo Stadium, Montreal on 24 October 2026. Sam Surridge opened the scoring 51 minutes into the game for Nashville SC to make it 1-0. Samsy Keita (an own goal) added to the tally 76 minutes into the game for Nashville SC to make it 2-0. Daniel Pereira (13'), Viktor Radojević (48'), Elias Saad (65') and Jeisson Palacios (70') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Nashville SC 341 points stronger than CF Montreal. 73.9% is Nashville SC's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Nashville SC are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Expected goals put the gap at 0.56 to 1.84. two yellow cards went to CF Montreal. The substitution total for CF Montreal was five. Nashville SC: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Nashville SC. A clean sheet for Nashville SC.