The head-to-head counts 21 recorded meetings since 2019: 5 to FC Cincinnati, 10 to Columbus Crew, 6 drawn, 25-43 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-2 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1489 and 1514 drive a 42.3% / 26.6% / 31.0% distribution.
Raw profiles are 1.40 and 1.68 against 1.20 and 1.09. Spread across the three results is 15.7 points. Ratings sit 25 apart. Flat distribution — 2-2 tops it at just 6.5%. Rounded, that is 2-2. Win-or-lose totals 73.3%; the draw takes the rest. The away side is rated higher. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 48.5% / 25.2% / 26.2%. The match did not follow it. Both figures rest on decent samples, 278 and 539 matches. The higher rating expects 44.3% of the points, the lower 55.7%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The model's preferred outcome is FC Cincinnati at 42.3%. Final score: 0-2. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The xG line reads 2.27 to 2.73. One half each — FC Cincinnati in front on 1.40, Columbus Crew behind on 1.09. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -11 and +14.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
FC Cincinnati came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding 12. On 14 October, FC Cincinnati recorded a 3-2 defeat hosting New England Revolution.
FC Cincinnati's at home game on 14 October (Major League Soccer) ended 2-3 against New England Revolution, with two goals for and three against. On 10 October, Atlanta United FC faced FC Cincinnati in Major League Soccer: FC Cincinnati won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one. Major League Soccer, 26 September brought an away meeting with CF Montreal; FC Cincinnati lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. FC Cincinnati visited Houston Dynamo on 20 September (Major League Soccer) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Charlotte travelled to face FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer) on 12 September. For FC Cincinnati, the score was 3-3: three goals scored, three allowed.
Columbus Crew: three wins and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Charlotte on 14 October.
Playing at home against Charlotte (Major League Soccer), Columbus Crew finished 3-1 on 14 October. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 10 October: Columbus Crew lost 2-3 against Orlando City SC away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Inter Miami in Major League Soccer, Columbus Crew scored two and conceded one on 27 September; the at home result was 2-1. Columbus Crew's away from home game on 19 September (Major League Soccer) ended 2-0 against CF Montreal, with two goals for and zero against. On 12 September, New York Red Bulls faced Columbus Crew in Major League Soccer: Columbus Crew lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Columbus Crew on 25 July and a 2-1 home win for FC Cincinnati on 8 November 2025.
After the match
Columbus Crew beat FC Cincinnati 2-0 at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio on 18 October 2026. Gonzalo Tapia opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Columbus Crew, set up by Brais Méndez, to make it 1-0. Taha Habroune added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Columbus Crew, set up by Gonzalo Tapia, to make it 2-0. Samuel Mawuena Gidi (28'), Teenage Hadebe (31'), André Gomes (52') and Dylan Chambost (93') were booked. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 2.12 to 0.36. two yellow cards went to FC Cincinnati. The substitution total for FC Cincinnati was five. two yellow cards went to Columbus Crew. The substitution total for Columbus Crew was five. Columbus Crew kept their opponents scoreless.