Prior record: 3-1-6 across 10 since 2012. Most recent 2024, 5-0 in Major League Soccer. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1510 and 1359 — 151 points — for a 67.4% / 20.4% / 12.2% split.
On expected goals the model has it 2.11 against 1.10. Top of the distribution: Seattle Sounders, 67.4%. Expected shares 77.6% against 22.4% on Elo. Higher rating: the home side. Before kickoff our model had this at 70.0% / 19.6% / 10.3%. The result went the other way. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +10 and -141. The four component numbers read 1.05, 1.05, 0.78, 1.36. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model gives 79.6% to someone winning. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 566 and 517 rated matches respectively. Neither component contradicts the other: Seattle Sounders leads 1.05-0.78 forward and 1.05-1.36 back. Outcomes span 55.2 points. Seattle Sounders holds a 47.0-point edge on the next outcome. Ratings sit 151 apart. Its rounded call is 2-1. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.9%. The match finished 1-1.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Seattle Sounders: four wins and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, three conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to FC Dallas on 15 October; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to New England Revolution on 10 October.
0-1 was Seattle Sounders's result against FC Dallas on 15 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Seattle Sounders lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 10 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Seattle Sounders with New England Revolution. Seattle Sounders won 3-0 away from home, netting three goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer), Seattle Sounders finished 2-1 on 2 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 27 September: Seattle Sounders won 3-1 against Minnesota United FC at home in Major League Soccer, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Real Salt Lake in Major League Soccer, Seattle Sounders scored two and conceded zero on 24 September; the at home result was 2-0.
CF Montreal's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 9 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Atlanta United FC were their latest opponents, at home on 14 October: a 3-0 defeat.
0-3 was CF Montreal's result against Atlanta United FC on 14 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; CF Montreal lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired CF Montreal with Toronto FC. CF Montreal lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer), CF Montreal finished 3-1 on 26 September. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 19 September: CF Montreal lost 0-2 against Columbus Crew at home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Colorado Rapids in Major League Soccer, CF Montreal scored zero and conceded one on 13 September; the away from home result was 0-1.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 5-0 home win for Seattle Sounders on 7 April 2024 and a 2-1 away win for CF Montreal on 30 June 2022.
After the match
Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal drew 1-1 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 18 October 2026. Gennadiy Synchuk opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for CF Montreal, set up by Noah Streit, to make it 1-0. Sebastian Gomez levelled it 66 minutes into the game for Seattle Sounders to make it 1-1. Hassani Dotson (14'), Alexis Sanchez (33') and Victor Loturi (52') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Seattle Sounders 151 points stronger than CF Montreal. Seattle Sounders: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Seattle Sounders. CF Montreal: two yellow cards. CF Montreal made five changes.