The head-to-head counts 3 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Los Angeles Galaxy, 3 to San Diego, 0 drawn, 2-7 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-3 in Major League Soccer. Today those sides rate 1468 and 1483, 15 apart, which resolves to 44.1% / 26.2% / 29.7%.
Expected shares 57.1% against 42.9% on Elo. Someone wins 73.8% of the time by this model. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The underlying goal expectation is 2.26 for Los Angeles Galaxy, 2.43 for San Diego. A 15-point difference on the rating scale. Its point estimate is 2-2. Logged in advance of kickoff — 41.9% / 26.7% / 31.4%. The match did not follow it. A 14.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -32 and -17. Outcomes span 17.9 points. The tie closed out 2-2. Attack/defence pairs: 1.06/1.39 and 1.29/1.43. Honours split: 1.29 forward for San Diego, 1.39 back for Los Angeles Galaxy. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-2 at 6.9%. Neither figure is thin: 532 and 69 matches respectively sit behind them.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
11 goals for and 11 against accompanied Los Angeles Galaxy's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 2-0 win at home to Portland Timbers (15 October) was their most recent result.
Portland Timbers travelled to face Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer) on 15 October. For Los Angeles Galaxy, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 2-6 was Los Angeles Galaxy's result against St. Louis City on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Los Angeles Galaxy lost, with two scored to six conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Los Angeles Galaxy with Colorado Rapids. Los Angeles Galaxy won 3-2 at home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer), Los Angeles Galaxy finished 3-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition. 13 September: Los Angeles Galaxy drew 1-1 against Seattle Sounders at home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing one.
San Diego: three draws and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, 17 conceded, without a win. Houston Dynamo were their latest opponents, at home on 15 October: a 3-3 draw.
San Diego hosted Houston Dynamo on 15 October (Major League Soccer) and drew 3-3; their goals totalled three, compared with three conceded. New York Red Bulls hosted San Diego (Major League Soccer) on 10 October. For San Diego, the score was 1-4: one goal scored, four allowed. 3-3 was San Diego's result against Austin on 27 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; San Diego drew, with three scored to three conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired San Diego with Inter Miami. San Diego drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer), San Diego finished 0-5 on 14 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against five from the opposition.
Previous meetings in our records: a 3-1 home win for San Diego on 30 August and a 2-1 home win for San Diego on 24 May 2025.
After the match
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego drew 2-2 at Dignity Health Sports Park, Los Angeles on 18 October 2026. Klauss opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Los Angeles Galaxy, set up by Sergi Roberto, to make it 1-0. Anders Dreyer levelled it from the penalty spot inside the first 10 minutes for San Diego to make it 1-1. Los Angeles Galaxy regained the lead through Erik Thommy in the 17th minute, set up by Harbor Miller, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, San Diego drew level through Gabriel Pirani in the 39th minute to make it 2-2. Aníbal Godoy (35'), Klauss (46') and Marco Reus (93') were booked. All the scoring was done by half time. Expected goals put the gap at 0.52 to 2.07. two yellow cards went to Los Angeles Galaxy. Los Angeles Galaxy: four substitutions. The card tally for San Diego was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for San Diego.