On record: 33 meetings from 2012, 45-62 on aggregate, 13 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-4 in Major League Soccer. The present numbers are 1515 against 1586, and the model turns that into 35.3% / 27.8% / 36.8%.
The ratings draw on 526 and 523 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The away side is rated higher. A 1.5-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. The three outcomes sit within 9.0 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. One half each — FC Dallas in front on 1.29, Houston Dynamo behind on 0.99. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. FC Dallas's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 50.9%. Top of the distribution: FC Dallas, 36.8%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.01/0.99 and 1.29/1.17. Someone wins 72.1% of the time by this model. Its point estimate is 1-1. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +15 and +86. Final score: 2-2. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.75 and 1.73. A 71-point difference on the rating scale. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 34.2% / 27.5% / 38.3%. The result went the other way.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and ten against accompanied Houston Dynamo's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. A 3-3 draw away to San Diego (15 October) was their most recent result.
San Diego hosted Houston Dynamo (Major League Soccer) on 15 October. For Houston Dynamo, the score was 3-3: three goals scored, three allowed. 2-2 was Houston Dynamo's result against Minnesota United FC on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Houston Dynamo drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Houston Dynamo with Sporting Kansas City. Houston Dynamo lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer), Houston Dynamo finished 2-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 13 September: Houston Dynamo lost 0-1 against San Jose Earthquakes away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
FC Dallas's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 4 conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Seattle Sounders were their latest opponents, at home on 15 October: a 1-0 win.
FC Dallas hosted Seattle Sounders on 15 October (Major League Soccer) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Charlotte hosted FC Dallas (Major League Soccer) on 10 October. For FC Dallas, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 1-0 was FC Dallas's result against Los Angeles FC on 27 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; FC Dallas won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired FC Dallas with Austin. FC Dallas drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer), FC Dallas finished 2-1 on 13 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 4-3 home win for FC Dallas on 22 March and a 2-0 away win for Houston Dynamo on 18 May 2025.
After the match
Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas drew 2-2 at BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston on 18 October 2026. Christian Cappis opened the scoring inside the first 12 minutes for FC Dallas, set up by Daniel Job, to make it 1-0. Héctor Herrera levelled it 49 minutes into the game for Houston Dynamo, set up by Guilherme Augusto, to make it 1-1. Mateusz Bogusz put Houston Dynamo in front from the penalty spot in the 94th minute to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, FC Dallas drew level through Petar Musa from the penalty spot in the 101st minute to make it 2-2. Agustin Resch (27'), Franco Negri (28'), Sebastien Ibeagha (59'), Diadie Samassekou (60'), Lucas Halter (90') and Mateusz Bogusz (98') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Houston Dynamo picked up five yellow cards. The substitution total for Houston Dynamo was four. one yellow card went to FC Dallas. The substitution total for FC Dallas was four. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence.