On file: 11 previous meetings dating to 2021, 9-15 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in Major League Soccer. Today those sides rate 1440 and 1635, 195 apart, which resolves to 20.4% / 23.5% / 56.2%.
The model's preferred outcome is Vancouver Whitecaps at 56.2%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 207 and 396 rated matches respectively. Most and least likely outcomes are 35.8 points apart. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. The match finished 1-2. In absolute terms: Austin 0.96/1.36, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.45/0.92 on attack and defence. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -60 and +135. Point estimate: 1-2. The away side is rated higher. Both components point the same way, toward Vancouver Whitecaps: 1.45 to 0.96 going forward, 0.92 to 1.36 going back. The xG line reads 1.32 to 2.67. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.7%. Before kickoff our model had this at 20.9% / 23.6% / 55.4%. It landed. By expected share of the points: 32.1% and 67.9%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 76.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 195 points.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and 11 against accompanied Austin's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. On 15 October, Austin recorded a 3-1 defeat visiting Los Angeles FC.
15 October: Austin lost 1-3 against Los Angeles FC away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Nashville SC in Major League Soccer, Austin scored one and conceded four on 11 October; the at home result was 1-4. Austin's at home game on 27 September (Major League Soccer) ended 3-3 against San Diego, with three goals for and three against. On 20 September, FC Dallas faced Austin in Major League Soccer: Austin drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Major League Soccer, 13 September brought an away meeting with Vancouver Whitecaps; Austin won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
eight goals for and seven against accompanied Vancouver Whitecaps's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. A 0-0 draw away to St. Louis City (15 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Real Salt Lake on 20 September.
St. Louis City hosted Vancouver Whitecaps (Major League Soccer) on 15 October. For Vancouver Whitecaps, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Vancouver Whitecaps's result against Los Angeles FC on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Vancouver Whitecaps drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 7 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Vancouver Whitecaps with Chicago Fire. Vancouver Whitecaps lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against DC United (Major League Soccer), Vancouver Whitecaps finished 3-3 on 27 September. Their score comprised three goals, against three from the opposition. 20 September: Vancouver Whitecaps won 3-0 against Real Salt Lake away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring three goals and allowing zero.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Austin on 13 September and a 0-0 draw at Austin on 18 May 2025.
After the match
Vancouver Whitecaps edged past Austin 2-1 at Q2 Stadium, Austin on 18 October 2026. Myrto Uzuni opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Austin to make it 1-0. Ryan Gauld levelled it 47 minutes into the game for Vancouver Whitecaps, set up by Emmanuel Sabbi, to make it 1-1. Yadaly Diaby put Vancouver Whitecaps in front 71 minutes into the game, set up by Tate Johnson, to make it 2-1. Andrés Cubas (13'), Tristan Blackmon (36') and Ryan Gauld (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Vancouver Whitecaps 195 points stronger than Austin. 56.2% is Vancouver Whitecaps's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Austin made five changes. Vancouver Whitecaps picked up three yellow cards. Vancouver Whitecaps: five substitutions. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Vancouver Whitecaps turned a deficit into victory.