Across 34 recorded meetings back to 2012 the split is 18-10-6 in New York Red Bulls's favour on wins, 61-33 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in Major League Soccer. Today those sides rate 1418 and 1474, 56 apart, which resolves to 37.5% / 27.7% / 34.8%.
Scorelines above 8%: 2. All three results are bunched inside 9.8 points. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. A decisive result carries 72.3% against 27.7% for the draw. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. It ended 0-2. Raw profiles are 0.84 and 1.26 against 1.05 and 1.24. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -82 and -26. Expected shares 51.3% against 48.7% on Elo. The top two outcomes are within 2.7 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Neither component contradicts the other: Toronto FC leads 1.05-0.84 forward and 1.24-1.26 back. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.8% leads, but only just. The forecast we stored before the match was 45.5% / 25.9% / 28.6%. The match did not follow it.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
New York Red Bulls came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding six. On 14 October, New York Red Bulls recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting DC United; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to San Diego on 10 October.
14 October: New York Red Bulls lost 1-2 against DC United away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against San Diego in Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls scored four and conceded one on 10 October; the at home result was 4-1. New York Red Bulls's at home game on 30 September (Major League Soccer) ended 0-3 against St. Louis City, with zero goals for and three against. On 18 September, New York City FC faced New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer: New York Red Bulls won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Major League Soccer, 12 September brought an away meeting with Columbus Crew; New York Red Bulls won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
Toronto FC: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, 12 conceded. Latest: a 3-3 draw at home to Orlando City SC on 14 October.
3-3 was Toronto FC's result against Orlando City SC on 14 October (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Toronto FC drew, with three scored to three conceded. The 10 October fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Toronto FC with CF Montreal. Toronto FC won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Nashville SC (Major League Soccer), Toronto FC finished 0-2 on 27 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 20 September: Toronto FC lost 1-3 against St. Louis City away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer, Toronto FC scored zero and conceded three on 12 September; the away from home result was 0-3.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Toronto FC on 14 March and a 1-1 draw at Toronto FC on 25 June 2025.
After the match
Toronto FC beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison on 17 October 2026. Justin Che (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Toronto FC to make it 1-0. Dániel Sallói added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Toronto FC, set up by Jonathan Osorio, to make it 2-0. Zane Monlouis (52'), Lewis Morgan (67') and Derrick Etienne Jr. (87') were booked. The substitution total for New York Red Bulls was five. Toronto FC picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Toronto FC was five. Toronto FC conceded no goals.