On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2018, 6-6 on goals. Last time: 2025, 0-1 in Major League Soccer. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1515 and 1592 — 77 points — for a 34.5% / 27.6% / 37.9% split.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 48.3% to 51.7%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. As a single number the model says 1-1. Played and finished 1-1. Neither figure is thin: 430 and 330 matches respectively sit behind them. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.4%. Goal expectation splits 1.10 to 1.68. All three results are bunched inside 10.3 points. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +15 and +92. Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/1.01 and 1.24/0.78. Distance between the ratings: 77 points, moderate on this scale. Both components point the same way, toward Los Angeles FC: 1.24 to 0.95 going forward, 0.78 to 1.01 going back. A decisive result carries 72.4% against 27.6% for the draw. The top two outcomes are within 3.4 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
New York City FC's previous five results comprised one win, one draw and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 7 conceded. Inter Miami were their latest opponents, away on 14 October: a 2-0 defeat.
New York City FC visited Inter Miami on 14 October (Major League Soccer) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Chicago Fire hosted New York City FC (Major League Soccer) on 10 October. For New York City FC, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 2-2 was New York City FC's result against Atlanta United FC on 26 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; New York City FC drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 18 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired New York City FC with New York Red Bulls. New York City FC lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), New York City FC finished 2-0 on 13 September. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition.
Los Angeles FC came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding eight. On 15 October, Los Angeles FC recorded a 3-1 win hosting Austin.
Major League Soccer, 15 October brought a home meeting with Austin; Los Angeles FC won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Los Angeles FC hosted Vancouver Whitecaps on 11 October (Major League Soccer) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. FC Dallas hosted Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer) on 27 September. For Los Angeles FC, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Los Angeles FC's result against San Jose Earthquakes on 19 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Los Angeles FC drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 13 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Los Angeles FC with Sporting Kansas City. Los Angeles FC lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Los Angeles FC on 2 March 2025 and a 2-1 away win for New York City FC on 29 May 2021.
After the match
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC drew 1-1 on 17 October 2026. Leo Walta opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Los Angeles FC to make it 1-0. Andrés Perea levelled it 59 minutes into the game for New York City FC, set up by Nicolás Fernández Mercau, to make it 1-1. Hannes Wolf (28'), Aiden O'Neill (44') and Agustin Ojeda (54') were booked. three yellow cards went to New York City FC. New York City FC: two substitutions. Los Angeles FC made five changes.