On record: 19 meetings from 2020, 30-29 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1407 against 1673 — a 13.4% / 21.0% / 65.6% split.
Expected goals sit at 1.61 against 3.15. The gap between first and second outcome is 44.6 points, Inter Miami ahead of the draw. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -93 and +173. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 1.24 against 1.88 and 1.15. The distribution runs from 65.6% down to 13.4%. Win-or-lose totals 79.0%; the draw takes the rest. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 355 and 246 matches. The forecast we stored before the match was 16.1% / 22.0% / 62.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. No scoreline stands out; 1-3 only leads on 7.2%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A 266-point difference on the rating scale. The model's preferred outcome is Inter Miami at 65.6%. By expected share of the points: 23.9% and 76.1%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Atlanta United FC came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding five, keeping three clean sheets. On 14 October, Atlanta United FC recorded a 3-0 win visiting CF Montreal.
Atlanta United FC's away from home game on 14 October (Major League Soccer) ended 3-0 against CF Montreal, with three goals for and zero against. On 10 October, FC Cincinnati faced Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer: Atlanta United FC lost 1-3 at home, having scored one and conceded three. Major League Soccer, 26 September brought a home meeting with New York City FC; Atlanta United FC drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Atlanta United FC visited Portland Timbers on 20 September (Major League Soccer) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. DC United hosted Atlanta United FC (Major League Soccer) on 12 September. For Atlanta United FC, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Inter Miami's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 6 conceded. New York City FC were their latest opponents, at home on 14 October: a 2-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to DC United on 10 October.
On 14 October, New York City FC faced Inter Miami in Major League Soccer: Inter Miami won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Major League Soccer, 10 October brought a home meeting with DC United; Inter Miami won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Inter Miami visited Columbus Crew on 27 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. San Diego travelled to face Inter Miami (Major League Soccer) on 20 September. For Inter Miami, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Inter Miami's result against Nashville SC on 12 September (Major League Soccer), playing at home; Inter Miami drew, with two scored to two conceded.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-2 draw at Inter Miami on 5 September and a 4-0 home win for Inter Miami on 11 October 2025.
After the match
Inter Miami beat Atlanta United FC 3-1 at Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta on 17 October 2026. Germán Berterame opened the scoring in the 45th minute for Inter Miami, set up by Luis Suárez, to make it 1-0. Lionel Messi added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Inter Miami, set up by Germán Berterame, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Inter Miami extended the lead through Lionel Messi 60 minutes into the game, set up by Luis Suárez, to make it 3-0. Fafà Picault got one back from the penalty spot late on, in the 89th minute for Atlanta United FC to make it 1-3. Tomás Jacob (44'), Mauricio Amaro (54'), Breel Embolo (71'), Maximiliano Falcon (89') and Lionel Messi (96') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Inter Miami 266 points stronger than Atlanta United FC. Inter Miami: 65.6% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. The card tally for Atlanta United FC was three yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Atlanta United FC. The card tally for Inter Miami was two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for Inter Miami.