Prior record: 1-0-2 across 3 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Major League Soccer. History aside, the live ratings of 1481 and 1515 drive a 40.9% / 26.9% / 32.2% distribution.
Someone wins 73.1% of the time by this model. The model's preferred outcome is San Diego at 40.9%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Result on the day: 3-3. The rating gap itself is 34 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. As a single number the model says 1-1. Higher rating: the away side. A 14.0-point range top to bottom. Raw profiles are 1.28 and 1.43 against 0.98 and 0.96. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -19 and +15. First to second is a 8.7-point step, San Diego over Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 45.6%. With 68 and 525 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Each side owns one half of the argument — San Diego the scoring rate at 1.28, Houston Dynamo the conceding rate at 0.96. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 50.0% / 24.9% / 25.1%. The result went the other way.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
San Diego's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 17 conceded, with no wins. Latest: a 4-1 defeat away to New York Red Bulls on 10 October.
Against New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer, San Diego scored one and conceded four on 10 October; the away from home result was 1-4. San Diego's away from home game on 27 September (Major League Soccer) ended 3-3 against Austin, with three goals for and three against. On 20 September, Inter Miami faced San Diego in Major League Soccer: San Diego drew 2-2 away from home, having scored two and conceded two. Major League Soccer, 14 September brought a home meeting with Philadelphia Union; San Diego lost 0-5, a return of zero goals scored and five conceded. San Diego hosted San Jose Earthquakes on 10 September (Major League Soccer) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded.
Houston Dynamo's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 8 conceded. Minnesota United FC were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 2-2 draw.
2-2 was Houston Dynamo's result against Minnesota United FC on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Houston Dynamo drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Houston Dynamo with Sporting Kansas City. Houston Dynamo lost 0-2 at home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer), Houston Dynamo finished 2-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 13 September: Houston Dynamo lost 0-1 against San Jose Earthquakes away from home in Major League Soccer, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Real Salt Lake in Major League Soccer, Houston Dynamo scored two and conceded one on 10 September; the at home result was 2-1.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for Houston Dynamo on 23 April and a 4-2 away win for San Diego on 5 October 2025.
After the match
San Diego and Houston Dynamo drew 3-3 on 15 October 2026. Anders Dreyer opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 20th minute for San Diego to make it 1-0. Cédric Bakambu added to the tally in the 22nd minute for San Diego, set up by Onni Valakari, to make it 2-0. Guilherme Augusto pulled one back in the 24th minute for Houston Dynamo, set up by Lawrence Ennali, to make it 1-2. Mateusz Bogusz levelled it in the 33rd minute for Houston Dynamo, set up by Guilherme Augusto, to make it 2-2. Guilherme Augusto put Houston Dynamo in front in the 37th minute to make it 3-2. With the 6th goal, San Diego drew level through Gabriel Pirani late on, in the 86th minute to make it 3-3. Lawrence Ennali (4'), Jonathan Bond (19'), Guilherme Augusto (44'), kieran sargeant (53'), Anders Dreyer (77') and Aníbal Godoy (79') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Houston Dynamo are 34 points stronger than San Diego. Expected goals put the gap at 2.55 to 0.93. San Diego: three yellow cards. San Diego made five changes. Houston Dynamo: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Houston Dynamo. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence.