33 meetings sit in the record, first in 2012, aggregate 46-53. The latest was 2025, 2-1 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1434 against 1502 — a 35.6% / 27.9% / 36.6% split.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 8.4%. In absolute terms: Real Salt Lake 0.93/1.25, San Jose Earthquakes 1.17/1.24 on attack and defence. By expected share of the points: 49.6% and 50.4%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. 68 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The match finished 1-1. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The leading two outcomes sit 1.0 points apart, which is not a real preference. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -66 and +2. The underlying goal expectation is 1.72 for Real Salt Lake, 1.97 for San Jose Earthquakes. San Jose Earthquakes holds both halves of the profile — 1.17 against 0.93 for scoring, 1.24 against 1.25 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 527 and 501 matches.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Real Salt Lake's previous five results comprised one win and four defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 9 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Philadelphia Union were their latest opponents, away on 10 October: a 2-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to New England Revolution on 27 September.
Real Salt Lake visited Philadelphia Union on 10 October (Major League Soccer) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. New England Revolution travelled to face Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer) on 27 September. For Real Salt Lake, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 0-2 was Real Salt Lake's result against Seattle Sounders on 24 September (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; Real Salt Lake lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 20 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired Real Salt Lake with Vancouver Whitecaps. Real Salt Lake lost 0-3 at home, netting zero goals while conceding three. Playing at home against New York City FC (Major League Soccer), Real Salt Lake finished 0-2 on 13 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition.
San Jose Earthquakes's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 6 conceded, with no defeats. Colorado Rapids were their latest opponents, away on 11 October: a 1-1 draw.
1-1 was San Jose Earthquakes's result against Colorado Rapids on 11 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; San Jose Earthquakes drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired San Jose Earthquakes with Portland Timbers. San Jose Earthquakes won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Los Angeles FC (Major League Soccer), San Jose Earthquakes finished 2-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 13 September: San Jose Earthquakes won 1-0 against Houston Dynamo at home in Major League Soccer, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against San Diego in Major League Soccer, San Jose Earthquakes scored three and conceded two on 10 September; the away from home result was 3-2.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 home win for Real Salt Lake on 27 July 2025 and a 4-0 home win for San Jose Earthquakes on 23 February 2025.
After the match
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1-1 at Rio Tinto Stadium, Sandy on 15 October 2026. Luc De Fougerolles opened the scoring 79 minutes into the game for Real Salt Lake, set up by Juan Sanabria, to make it 1-0. Jack Jasinski levelled it in the 94th minute for San Jose Earthquakes to make it 1-1. Ariath Piol (91') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: San Jose Earthquakes are 68 points stronger than Real Salt Lake. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Major League Soccer. Real Salt Lake picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Real Salt Lake was four. The substitution total for San Jose Earthquakes was five.