On file: 39 previous meetings dating to 2013, 40-58 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in Major League Soccer. Currently 1586 against 1518 — a 56.6% / 23.3% / 20.1% split.
In absolute terms: FC Dallas 1.28/1.15, Seattle Sounders 1.06/1.07 on attack and defence. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 8.6%. The match finished 1-0. FC Dallas sits 33.3 points above the next most likely result. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The underlying goal expectation is 2.04 for FC Dallas, 1.65 for Seattle Sounders. By expected share of the points: 68.3% and 31.7%. Most and least likely outcomes are 36.5 points apart. With 522 and 565 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Neither side holds both halves — FC Dallas scores at 1.28, Seattle Sounders concedes at 1.07. Before kickoff our model had this at 50.7% / 24.7% / 24.6%. That call matched the result. 76.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 68 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
FC Dallas: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 3-2 defeat away to Charlotte on 10 October.
2-3 was FC Dallas's result against Charlotte on 10 October (Major League Soccer), playing away from home; FC Dallas lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 27 September fixture (Major League Soccer) paired FC Dallas with Los Angeles FC. FC Dallas won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Austin (Major League Soccer), FC Dallas finished 0-0 on 20 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 13 September: FC Dallas won 2-1 against Portland Timbers at home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Minnesota United FC in Major League Soccer, FC Dallas scored two and conceded one on 10 September; the away from home result was 2-1.
Seattle Sounders's previous five results comprised four wins and one draw. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 5 conceded, with no defeats. New England Revolution were their latest opponents, away on 10 October: a 3-0 win.
Playing away from home against New England Revolution (Major League Soccer), Seattle Sounders finished 3-0 on 10 October. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 2 October: Seattle Sounders won 2-1 against Sporting Kansas City at home in Major League Soccer, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Minnesota United FC in Major League Soccer, Seattle Sounders scored three and conceded one on 27 September; the at home result was 3-1. Seattle Sounders's at home game on 24 September (Major League Soccer) ended 2-0 against Real Salt Lake, with two goals for and zero against. On 20 September, Colorado Rapids faced Seattle Sounders in Major League Soccer: Seattle Sounders drew 3-3 away from home, having scored three and conceded three.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 home win for Seattle Sounders on 26 April and a 1-0 home win for Seattle Sounders on 24 May 2025.
After the match
FC Dallas edged past Seattle Sounders 1-0 at Toyota Stadium(Texas), Frisco on 15 October 2026. Kaick da Silva Ferreira opened the scoring 63 minutes into the game for FC Dallas, set up by Osaze Urhoghide, to make it 1-0. Patrickson Delgado (81') was booked. FC Dallas: 56.6% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.95 to 1.8. FC Dallas picked up one yellow card. FC Dallas: three substitutions. Seattle Sounders made five changes. FC Dallas kept their opponents scoreless.